The development of self-driving, or autonomous, vehicles is accelerating. Several auto-manufacturers are adapting their business models for fully self-driving cars. Many speak of a disruptive technology in the automotive industry. But, what will the impact of this technology be?
Self-driving vehicles are a major innovation regarding the automotive industry. Let’s for instance look at Tesla. Tesla was one of the first to implement the so-called “autopilot” in its cars. This technology enabled the car to manage its speed, steer within lanes and even switch between them when needed. Before this there had been no car that could drive itself safely in a variety of conditions. So what are the main advantages of autonomous cars?
- The lack of human error whilst driving, which results in a safer journey.
- Traffic and fuel efficiency will greatly improve.
- More free time for drivers.
Others are more sceptical about the new technology. They state the following disadvantages:
- The possibility of hardware/software malfunction, resulting in an accident.
- Autonomous cars would likely be out of the price range for many.
- Truck- and taxi drivers will lose their jobs.
These pro’s and cons mentioned, show that several industries are closely related to the automotive industry, for instance the auto-repair industry. According to McKinsey around 90% of the car accidents could be eliminated with the adoption of autonomous vehicles. This of course has a major influence on the auto-repair industry. Since cars will be safer and less likely suffer of damage, little repair will be necessary, resulting in job losses throughout the whole industry.
Because of the relatively high prices autonomous cars will sell for, some experts say not many will own them. Instead, these cars will enable the ride sharing economy to grow. Uber, one of the key-players in this industry, has been investing heavily in this technology and recently started with its first fleet of self-driving cars in Pittsburgh. As a result, public transport will lose market at the expense of this new “sharing model” resulting in a lot of job losses in this industry. The same goes for taxi-drivers.
This technology seems to be evolving in a rapid pace. However, our infrastructure and legislation has not been fully adapted yet for this new disruptive technology. In May of 2016, a fatal accident took place in the US involving a Tesla model S operating in autopilot. Tesla stated that a crossing truck was mistaken for an overhead sign (due to reflecting daylight), which caused the cars automatic braking not to fire. In cases like these it is not easy to tell who’s to blame. Is it the “driver” (who did not intervene in time) or would it be the manufacturer of the car (which delivered a mal-functioning system).
Reflecting on the accidents with regards to autonomous driving, the uncertainty for several other industries (and its jobs) and the legislation which have not been adapted yet, I ask the question: Are we ready to take our hands off the wheel?
References:
- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on
- http://www.newstalk.com/Driving-Into-Future:-Are-We-Ready-For-Autonomous-Cars
- http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/ten-ways-autonomous-driving-could-redefine-the-automotive-world
- http://www.theverge.com/2016/7/26/12287118/tesla-autopilot-crash-images-speed-limit-ntsb
Hi Eric
Thank you for sharing this very interesting article. Autonomous cars are, in my opinion, truly the future. Who knows, maybe in a couple of years we are able to take a nap while the car drives itself. However, for now, drivers have to still focus on what the cars around them are doing. There have been some accidents recently where drivers didn’t watch the road ahead of them because they thought the car was driving itself.
With this being said, I do think developers of autonomous cars need to do a lot more testing. But, when it has been tested properly and it is safe enough, I would definitely take my hands of the steering wheel. It would be very convenient when you still have to read something before class or a meeting, or when you are tired that you don’t have to pay attention. This would also increase dangerous situations on the road.
I off course mean ‘this would also decrease dangerous situations on the road’ instead of increase.
Hello Eric,
Thanks for taking the time to write this article. I think autonomous cars are a very interesting topic nowadays. I think that we have to wait for another 10-15 years until autonomous cars will and can be used safely on the public road.
First of all, as you mentioned, I also think that the infrastructure that we currently have is not ready for autonomous cars. If only some parts of the road are suitable for autonomous driving and other parts are not, why should we have an autopilot? It would mean we have to switch from auto-pilot to driving every few minutes.
Secondly, I also agree with Lianne about the testing. I think a lot of testing has to be done before we can let our cars drive autonomously. It would be totally unacceptable if there would be any (fatal) accidents neither in the beginning nor in any later stage, because the auto-pilot then would be useless.
Besides these disadvantages, there are also the disadvantages of potentially failing software, legislation in different countries, the loss of jobs and the forever existing ethical issue; should our life be dependent on robots? I personally think it is better not to introduce autonomous cars and let our life be dependent on ourselves.