When, back in 1972, mr. Metcalfe was struck with an idea that would revolutionise networking technology, the possibilities seemed endless. The computers of the time (the really large ones like the Xerox Alto) did not support a unified way of transmitting data over a wired network. The main problem was interference: when multiple nodes in a network transmit messages at the same time, their contents are garbled. Metcalfe solved this issue by devising specific rules to network communication that are now known as Ethernet. In its essence, the rules prescribe that every node should receive a confirmation when a piece of information is transferred properly. In case a collision occurs, the node simply re-sends the information until the transfer succeeds. These pieces of information are called ‘packages’ and are still used in modern-day technology (check the network statistics in task manager (Windows) or activity monitor (Mac)).
Metcalfe did however anticipate certain limitations of his revolutionary technology that still challenge today’s internet: as more and more users (nodes) take part in the system, the number of potential connections increases dramatically, as does the volume of traffic. According to his predictions, the internet should have collapsed under the weight of traffic in 1996. He is not the only one predicting doom and gloom, multiple (authoritative) sources have at some point predicted that either the amount of information or transfer of said information would at some point exceed capacity, causing the entire system to grind to a halt.
The Economist forecasts information abundance in 2010 (left); Cisco forecasts traffic in 2016 (right).
Yet, here we are. The internet is as much alive as it ever was, a remarkable fact considering the near-exponential growth in the past decade (due to, for instance, cloud computing and the Internet of Things). More and more users are connected throughout the world and the total amount of information shared between them is expected to exceed one zettabyte this year, ushering in the ‘zettabyte era’ according to Cisco (a zettabyte is roughly one billion terabyte). So how does the internet cope?
One way is massive investment. Back in the 2000’s, when capacity problems started to surface, increasing availability and bandwidth became the focal points for companies maintaining the backbone of the internet. Transoceanic cables and off-shore solutions provided the required access and their number grew rapidly:
In addition, most developed economies are heavily supporting the development of fiber, which can be regarded to be the follow-up of old-fashioned copper cabling. Decreasing production and deployment costs allow for fiber connections to be implemented on a more granular level: from city blocks and industrial areas straight to (individual) consumers homes.
Datacenters are continually improving their services too. Nowadays, these enormous internet-warehouses focus on three main goals: increasing agility, availability and efficiency. Agile services and hardware allow operators to adapt quickly to new technologies and provide services to customers faster, for instance by continuously upgrading internal cabling, switches and routers (either of which can cause hardware bottlenecks in the future). Availability and redundancy mostly impact day-to-day operations. Because the demand from connected consumers is never-ending, designing and maintaining an efficient never-offline datacenter is challenging, yet does provide ample opportunities like modular designs, preconfigured hardware and clever management.
So for now, information availability is secure. The real challenge concerns how to find relevant and useful information within the ever-increasing bulk of data that the internet is able to provide straight to your preferred device.
Sources:
http://www.economist.com/node/15557443
http://www.economist.com/node/18895468
http://www.economist.com/node/12673221
http://www.economist.com/node/15048791
http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/vni-hyperconnectivity-wp.html
http://tacdata.squarespace.com/home/2012/1/13/transoceanic-communications-cables.html
http://searchdatacenter.techtarget.com/feature/QA-How-data-centers-can-keep-up-with-massive-Internet-user-growth
