Stephen Hawking predicted only two years ago that the pace of the development of full artificial intelligence (AI) could be a serious threat for humankind, which eventually spell the end of the human race (Cellan-Jones, 2014). Also Elon Musk stated that AI is our biggest existential threat (Cellan-Jones, 2014). A rather frightening thought which could easily cause a world-wide panic attack with devastating consequences, if true. The ‘if-true’ combination is quite important in this, because even-though professor Hawking and mister Musk are well-respected names in the scene with access to incredible amounts of data and knowledge and a more that capable vision related to this subject to predict the future, they do not actually know the future. With these verdict, it seems that the question becomes when robots take over humankind, not if. Perhaps it easier to convince people to be frightened of the unknown than to embrace it, particularly if you are well known, but since the future equals speculation, let me give it a try.
First of all, although they might be key figures in the scientific and technological industry, having made great accomplishments and influencing many people around the world, there are more opinions related to this topic. Opinions that are not as destructive, yet more close in time and thus more concrete and realistic. Because let’s be honest, discussing the end of the existence of humankind seems the least to say intangible. A more positive perspective is from Sabine Hauert, roboticist at Bristol University, who states that AI will open up whole new worlds to explore and change the way we uncover the oceans and space (Del Prado, 2015). That doesn’t seem too bad right? Another great application of AI is in the healthcare industry, for example as assistants of humans. Yoky Matsuoka, former Vice President of Technology at Nest, gives the example that robotic limbs can not only complement the human body, but also enhance it, like an efficient partnership (Del Prado, 2015).
Both previously mentioned visions display the positive view towards AI. But only showing contradicting views does not seal the deal, let’s also look at rooted fear of AI and attack that. This fear consists of robots or other machines having AI that might ruin the world, but this actually assumes that it is possible at all for that type of AI to exist. Superintelligence is the term Paul Ford (2015) uses for it, and he concludes that, as for now, there is still nothing that approaches a general-purpose AI or even a clear path to how it could be achieved. Another great threat to superintelligence is the halting problem. The halting problem is concerned with whether any program will continue to run or finish running. This problem is proved by Turing to be impossible to solve for all cases, which means that a strongly self-modifying AI that is able to modify its own source is most likely to create a bug. The bug will result in an inevitable crash that requires human intervention to be solved (Suki, 2015). This indicates that all AI driven machines are potentially self-destructive, which is reassuring thought in relation to superintelligence.
In the end, whether we have three degrees in robotics, technology, or any other related field or are ‘just’ interested like myself, we can all only speculate about the future. Predicting the future related to AI is perhaps even more difficult than in other fields, because it is still in its infancy, yet related developments and advancements are way faster. I do understand that we should be prepared and anticipate for all possible scenarios, but fear causes dispersion, which inevitably leads to conflict, and don’t we already have enough of that?
References:
Cellan-Jones, R. (2014). Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind. Technology Correspondent. [Accessed at 03-10-2016]. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540
Del Prado, G.M., (2015). 18 intelligence researchers reveal the profound changes coming to our lives. Techinsider. [Accessed at 02-10-2016]. Available from: http://www.techinsider.io/researchers-predictions-future-artificial-intelligence-2015-10/
Ford, P. (2015). Our fear of Artificial Intelligence. MIT Technology Review. [Accessed at 03-10-2016]. Available from: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/534871/our-fear-of-artificial-intelligence/
Suki, I. (2015). Arguments against the threat of artificial superintelligence. Essay. [Accessed at 02-10-2016]. Available from: https://www.isaacsukin.com/news/2015/04/arguments-against-threat-artificial-superintelligence
