Today I would like to share with you an interesting insight by Julio Gil. In his Ted Talk at a TED institute in partnership with UPS, he stated that more and more people will start living in the countryside (Zelas, 2016). Julio Gil predicts the density of cities to decrease. This is a very surprising view as a lot of media suggest the density of cities to increase even further (Gil, 2017).
Julio Gil predicts we will be able to enjoy the benefits of living in a city from anywhere. For instance, he suggests that by using augmented reality tools we will be able to spend up to 80% teleworking, this makes living in a city for your job less important. Also, access to services and goods will be just as easy as in cities due to drones being able to deliver packages to your door simply and fast. Finally, he states that a lot of people move to the city for a rich social life, while it is actually proven that social connections are stronger in smaller groups (which takes place at the countryside) (Gil, 2017).
In my opinion, the technical advancements will indeed make it easier to live out of town. However, I believe the importance of physical presence and networking will still prevail, even as augmented reality settings increase in quality. Thus, I believe the attraction of cities will prevail and density will still increase.
So, what do you think? Will the attractive factors of cities indeed be available everywhere, including the countryside? And will this indeed move more and more people to the countryside? Or will the cities remain the most attractive places to live, increasing the density? One thing is for sure, the happiest people are found at the countryside, and the unhappiest people are found in rural areas (Swinford, 2013).
- Gil, J. (2017, July 1). Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere. Retrieved from: https://www.ted.com/talks/julio_gil_future_tech_will_give_you_the_benefits_of_city_life_anywhere/reading-list
- Swinford, S. (2013, October 23). Living in the countryside makes people happier, ONS suggests. Retrieved from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/10399019/Living-in-the-countryside-makes-people-happier-ONS-suggests.html
- Zelas, K. (2016, November 8). Millennials’ mass migration to cities is an urban myth, CBRE says. Retrieved from: http://www.investors.com/news/millennials-mass-migration-to-cities-is-an-urban-myth-cbre-says/
Great post, Roelof! It is, indeed, a very interesting insight. I definitely think that the latest technological advancements (and the future ones) will make life much more efficient. Maybe there is a correlation between age and ‘migration’ to the country side. Maybe people that are at the top of their career will live in or close to cities, whereas older people will migrate to the country side. However, I do think some matters are hard to replicate with the use of technology. As you already mention, socializing and networking will probably require physical presence. I think people also attach some emotional value to experiences that is hard to replicate using technology. For example, shopping online exists for a long time now, but sometimes you can’t even enter a physical store because it is so crowded. Thus, even though shopping online is more convenient in the sense of time saving, bigger variety of products and much more, people still visit physical stores. Some people just like the experience of going shopping. Other people like the experience of having a drink at a bar in the city, they maybe like the ‘feel’ of cities, and so on. The feeling these experiences evoke in people might be hard to recreate using technology.
However, I do think more and more people will leave big cities. The ‘Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek’ (CBS) has published an article in 2016 that said more and more people indeed leave the 4 big cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague & Utrecht) (CBS, 2016). All the four cities except Rotterdam had more people move out of the city than people coming in (CBS, 2016). The article also mentions that people moving in to the cities are mostly from countries other than The Netherlands. This makes sense, as people might come to The Netherlands to work for international companies, which are mostly located in bigger cities. This could mean that the big cities are becoming more and more international.
I also think there might be a bit of a paradox in this situation. Suppose more and more people leave big cities and move to the countryside. Don’t those countryside small cities or villages become crowded, too, if more and more people move to them? Doesn’t that just create more cities? Of course, cities will offer more facilities, but as more people move to the quieter areas, they will get bigger and probably build more facilities for the citizens.
All in all, I think this is an interesting topic and I wonder how the situation will unfold.
Source: https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2016/08/meer-mensen-vertrekken-uit-grote-stad
Interesting ideas Roelof. I think it is possible that more people will move to the countryside and that this is more attractive, however I think this will be a luxury, with only a small percentage of people being able to do it. Furthermore, the global expectation is that the larger cities will only get more crowded, especially in developing countries, as work is more readily available there. Maybe as working-remote becomes more accepted and public transportation improves, it will be possible to work more from outside of the large cities.