Fearing new technologies lies in our human nature. The upcoming technology of Artificial Intelligende (AI) is no exception. We can see several similarities with for example the development of the internal combustion engine in the past. People feared that it could have a negative impact on the number of jobs available for them. However, we have seen that this was not the case as the technology allowed for the emergence of new jobs in the same industries. Around experts there is not much consensus about whether the same will happen with AI. For example, Erik Brynjolfsson and Daniel Rock, with MIT, and Tom Mitchell of Carnegie Mellon University, point out that AI will have a limited impact on people’s jobs (McKendrick, 2018). They state that AI is highly specified and that the technology will be able to only take over just parts of many jobs. According to them, most jobs incorporate both tasks that are suitable for machine learning and tasks that are not suitable for machine learning and require human capabilities which leads to jobs being only partially taken over by AI. This is the optimistic view. However, a Pew Research Center study found that 48% of 1896 experts “envision a future in which robots and digital agents will have displaced significant numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers” (Smith & Anderson, 2014). In line with this vision, Subhash Kak states that AI is different from earlier technological revolutions in the sense that is does not aim for just increasing industry efficiency (Kak, 2018). It aims to replace the human mind, making it essentially different from earlier automating revolutions.
As the fear of technology taking over jobs could this time actually be true, we should start thinking about the implications for society. For example, as Subhash Kak mentions, modern society needs jobs for emotional wellbeing. The solution of a guaranteed minimum income, as proposed by some people, does not provide in this human need. Humans need a purpose in life, a job gives them a sense of contribution and status. As AI could take this away from a large part of the workforce, this could have serious implications on their emotional wellbeing. In my opinion, this kind of implications of AI deserves more attention. Of course, AI will have different implications for different jobs, but in general I think we can say that certain jobs are in danger of disappearing and that this will have major consequences for the people affected. At this moment we are already well into the transaction to a society in which AI plays a major role, therefore we should start thinking about it’s consequences right now instead of when problems start occurring.
Kak, S. (2018) Will Robots take your tob? Humans ignore the coming AI revolution at their peril. [Online, available at https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/will-robots-take-your-job-humans-ignore-coming-ai-revolution-ncna845366 ] (Accessed on 17-10-2018)
McKendrick, J. (2018) Artificial Intelligence will take over tasks, not jobs. [Online, available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemckendrick/2018/08/14/artificial-intelligence-will-replace-tasks-not-jobs/#7c0c1bbca7fa ] (Accessed on 17-10-2018)
Smith, A., Anderson, J. (2014) AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs, Pew Research Center.
Dear Wouter,
Thanks for sharing your idea’s with us! I totally agree with you that the recent development in AI technology should raise concerns among our society. More over i share the same belief that the AI revolution will change society in a defferent way than the combustion engine or industrial revolution did. How ever, i do wonder why you don’t think a guaranteed universal income could work. You mention people need more than money out of a job like, a feeling of contribution and status. But do you really need a job to achieve those objectives? How about someone who gets a minimal base income which coaches a junior soccer team? this person would be having a feeling of contribution and status i believe. I would love to hear your thoughts on my idea!
Christophe
Interesting post Wouter! Especially the part on the societal consequences provides a new look on the possible impact of AI. I completely agree with you that some jobs will disappear, especially ones that can get automated easily. However, I personally like to take a more positive view.
For the case of AI, Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue in their article ‘The Great Decoupling’ (2015) that humans are still far superior in two areas. Firstly, high-end creativity such as scientific breakthroughs and new business ideas. Creativity can thus remain the fuel of our economy, as it has been for the past decades. Secondly, they argue that AI has problems with human emotions and interpersonal relations, and although AI gets increasingly better in recognizing and dealing with emotions, it will be hard for them to motivate or nurture people. Not to speak of the difficulties they have with deciphering human body language.
Above examples might seem rather trivial but should not be underestimated since they heavily influence or jobs on a daily business.
Bernstein, A., & Raman, A. (2015). The Great Decoupling: An Interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. Harvard Business Review, 93(6), 66-74.
Hi Wouter, thanks for the interesting read. Personally, I agree with you on the fact that people’s lives will be severely impacted by the rise of AI. However, I do not think that this is a ‘combustion engine’-like fearsome situation. In fact, it I think that it will make our lives so much easier. When people do not need to do the tasks that do not add much value any more, they will have time for the more important things. This not only applies to work related tasks, but also to spending time with the family, teaching and learning stuff to and from other people, etc. That seems to be one of the points that the scholars keep overlooking, and therefore I would like to highlight it here.