Forget electric vehicles, self-driving cars, and shared mobility- the launch of flying cars could be the next big thing in the field of mobility.
Until now buzzwords in the transportation industry such as electrification and autonomous driving have dominated the headlines. However, the approaching commercial debut of the world’s first personal air vehicle has sparked interest in this new form of aerial mobility. The company behind the novel product, Terrafugia, is currently taking orders for Transition, the first flying car (Rocco, 2018). The vehicle promises the following functionalities: speed of 100 miles an hour, altitudes of up to 9,000 feet and both air and ground transport (Metcalfe, 2018). It also offers a “new dimension of personal freedom” and an escape from traffic jams, however, can these features be enough to disrupt the existing methods of transport?
Flying cars have been preceded by a number of innovations with the potential to disrupt or at least transform the transportation industry landscape. Disruption by definition is the capability of creating major change or interfering with the regular course of a system (Sprei 2018). In the transport industry, shared mobility companies such as ride-sharing startups Lyft and Uber have been claimed to disrupt the market by shifting the focus away from privately owned vehicles. However, according to Christensen’s framework on disruptive innovation, Uber fails to meet the criteria that would classify the ride-hailing giant as disruptive. Conversely to companies categorized as disruptive, Uber did not start in markets that incumbents overlooked nor was its services considered inferior by the customers of the incumbents (M. Christensen, E. Raynor and McDonald, 2015). In like manner, electronic vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla cannot be considered disruptive as the original electric car was superior and more expensive compared to existing products and was discounted to attract the interest of the mainstream market (Sprei 2018).
Where these major innovations have failed to disrupt the automobile industry, there still remains hope for flying vehicles in the private aviation sector of transport (Metcalfe, 2018). In accordance with the disruption theory, Terrafugia targets a niche market of private aviation customers that incumbents neglect. Moreover, it offers a product with inferior qualities but with a lower price tag and promise of a decrease in parking fees and fuel costs. The migration of the product to the mainstream market could, however, be impeded by mechanical shortcomings, harsh regulations, and difficulty in integrating the vehicle safely into airspace (Metcalfe, 2018). Nevertheless, flying vehicles hold the promise of disrupting the transportation market as we know it.
Sprei, F. (2018). Disrupting mobility. Energy Research & Social Science, [online] 37, pp.238-242. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629617303596 [Accessed 5 Oct. 2018].
Christensen, C., E. Raynor, M. and McDonald, R. (2015).What Is Disruptive Innovation?. [online] Harvard Business Review. Available at: https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation [Accessed 8 Oct. 2018].
Metcalfe, T. (2018). The Terrafugia Transition could end the long wait for flying cars. [online] NBC News. Available at: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/terrafugia-transition-means-long-wait-flying-cars-almost-over-ncna919211 [Accessed 4 Oct. 2018].
Rocco, M. (2018). World’s first flying car about to go on sale. [online] Fox Business. Available at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/worlds-first-flying-car-about-to-go-on-sale [Accessed 9 Oct. 2018].
Thank you for sharing this article, Kati.
The world of transportation is particularly fascinating, because it has a big impact on most of us to some extent. In the past 10 years especially the sector of private transportation has seen a lot of changes, you mentioned Tesla or Uber, after decades of little to no change in this area of the economy. Although they have not disrupted the industry in the strict sense, I am unsure whether flying cars have this ability.
The Terrafugia Transition will definitely be a niche product, but it is yet to receive a price tag and I doubt it will be cheaper than an average car. Fuel consumption of 19L/h and top flying speeds of 161km/h also results in 3x-4x higher total fuel costs than inflicted by cars today, considering that the car can take a more direct route, but first needs to drive to a departure airport and then again from the destination airport to the final destination.
Furthermore, if this flying car was to reach the mainstream market with millions of people adopting the technology, how would that change our cities and the environment? Would it make owning a car more attractive again because of fewer jammed roads until an equilibrium of flying cars and cars is reached?
Flying cars definitely have the ability to change the way we get from A to B, but due to the starting price tag i believe the path of this technology is not going to be a disruptive one. Just like Tesla it will first be an expensive high-end niche market with the option to then use the acquired funds and knowledge to move into the mass market.
Are flying cars addressing the low-end foothold though? I mean sure you could argue that they address a new market altogether but the cars need to be sold at really competitive prices to win over the mainstream market.