News reports about autonomous vehicles are a hot topic. From the massive investments from legacy companies in the car industry to its deadly accidents, media coverage is massive. And it is no wonder: an infrastructure constituted of autonomous vehicles would not only completely disrupt the car industry, but our entire economy and idea of time management as a whole. But how feasible is having an autonomous machine transporting you within ten years?
Firstly, the differing levels of Autonomous Driving must be assessed. According to Gartner’s hype cycle, it is not. Both “Autonomous Driving Level 4” and “Autonomous Driving Level 5” are indicated by white dots. Autonomous Driving Level 4 is what is meant by a high level of automation (SAE, 2013). Level 5 is regarded as full automation (SAE, 2013). This indicates that according to the 2019’s Gartner Hype Cycle we won’t see either a high automation or full automated vehicles within ten years. This directs not only to human passengers but also transporting medical supplies, food delivery and more.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2019 (source: https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2019/)
According to court documents of Uber obtained in the beginning of 2019, Uber thought it would be operating 75000 autonomous vehicles on the roads in 2019 and exploiting driverless taxi services by 2022. Uber at the time, 2016, was investing 20 million dollars a month to develop self-driving technologies. According to Reuters, Uber even at times spent close to 200 million dollars per quarter on its self-driving unit. A specific objective which was communicated by John Bares, at the time in charge of Uber’s autonomous vehicles, was to be able to forgo human safety drivers by 2020. Uber, in cooperation with Volvo, has released a third generation version of its self-driving car, which is autonomous at the factory level. It will start testing on public roads in 2020. It is also expected to launch an Uber air service. Testing starts in 2020 and Uber is looking to launch some version of an air taxi service in 2023.
Uber’s air taxi service expected to launch in 2023. (source: https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/11/18661129/uber-air-taxi-cabin-interior-elevate-helicopter)
While Gartner’s Hype Cycle is indicating that it may take over ten years before we see a full adoption of autonomous vehicles, Uber is proving that it may be sooner than we think. Essential partnerships with a huge car manufacturer, enough capital to spend and the testing of an air taxi service in American cities. With the rapid development of technology and the unforeseeable benefits that autonomous vehicles bring, I expect the first fully autonomous services to be offered by 2023. Especially because Uber’s legal team is highly specialized in loopholes in regulation (UberPOP), with the right partnerships and technology this is certainly feasible. In my opinion, once the autonomous technology is proven to have surpassed the human error threshold, regulation should open up and facilitate technology instead of working against it. It may be a while before customers have full availability of their own personal autonomous vehicle, especially regarding large scale infrastructure adaptations. When taxi services only are offered, such large scale adaptations are not needed because the gross of the traffic will still be non-autonomous. If regulation starts cooperating with technology instead of resisting it then before you know, you will be able to book an autonomous machine transporting from A to B. Most certainly within ten years.
Schoettle, B., & Sivak, M. (2014). A survey of public opinion about autonomous and self-driving vehicles in the US, the UK, and Australia. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute.
Smith, B. W. (2013b). SAE levels of driving automation. <http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/sae-levels-driving-automation>.
Uber’s court documents: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5765440-2275-4-Uber-Bratic-Report-EXCELLENT.html
https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/08/uber-expects-a-long-wait-before-self-driving-cars-dominate/
https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/12/ubers-self-driving-car-unit-was-burning-20-million-a-month/
https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/11/18661129/uber-air-taxi-cabin-interior-elevate-helicopter
Interesting topic Max! My father always used to tell me that his future to be grandchildren won’t need to learn how to drive a car because of his expectation that autonomous vehicles would become reality. I was aware that Uber was making investments in autonomous vehicles and they are making progress but I didn’t it expect to happen so fast, 2023 is only a few years away. Why do you think that the autonomous cars wil be available to the public earlier than the advise that is given by Gartner? The developments that are currently undertaken by Uber are also on the radar of Gartner when publishing their advise in the Hypecycle (Gartner, 2019). Do you think you value the partnership between Uber and Volvo next to the capital they have more than Gartner in regard to Uber’s ability to realise the autonomous cabs as a service to the public?
You mention in your blogpost that it will be vital for the success of autonomous vehicles that legislators enable innovation with their policies. Did you know in the Netherlands the applicable government agency is already designing a drivers license for autonomous vehicles, interesting right? (Kok, 2019)
References:
Kok, R. (2019). CBR ontwikkelt rijbewijs voor zelfrijdende auto’s [Online]. Available at:
https://www.rijschoolpro.nl/autonieuws/2019/08/29/cbr-ontwikkelt-rijbewijs-voor-zelfrijdende-autos/?gdpr=accept [Accessed 6 October 2019]
Super interesting article!
Really cool to Uber expanding into other modes of transport and applying a forward-thinking approach to implement autonomous vehicles.
From what I’ve seen, I recall Uber also operating water taxis in countries like Croatia. This might be another market for them to get into for AVs.
The future is bright with many applications.
Thanks for the share!