According to 99 Bitcoins, a cryptocurrency information source, the original cryptocurrency ‘Bitcoin’ has died 90 times in 2018, which is slightly less than the 125 times it died in 2017 (Yahoo, 2018). Despite contradictors’ eagerness to bury the coin once and for all, bitcoin’s media profile has never been higher. So even as its price cratered in 2018, Google searches for bitcoin have rocketed to record highs (‘What is Bitcoin?’) (CNN, 2018).
Of course, Google Trends doesn’t provide the gross number of searches, but Google is the best search engine in the world, processing millions of searches per minute, and therefore if one of its top queries is “What is Bitcoin” over the course of 2018, it’s safe to say that the crypto industry have entered the mainstream consciousness. Despite a lot of noisy protestations in 2018, bitcoin is still alive and kicking. Moreover, even its harshest critics have heaped praise on blockchain, the revolutionary technology underpinning crypto. Also, many industry insiders were optimistic and confident that 2019 will be a blockbuster year of unprecedented expansion fueled by a surge in institutional investments.
“The first-time bitcoin breached this level to the upside was in a frenzy of fear-of-missing-out as most of the world was just learning what this new digital asset is all about,” eToro’s senior market analyst Mati Greenspan wrote in a note to clients. eToro is an online trading platform that has both manual trading and social trading features. “This time, however, the rise seems much more sustainable and the current price more justifiable given the current levels of awareness and adoption.” (Forbes, 2019). Adopters of bitcoin, crypto and blockchain include some of the world’s biggest technology companies, such as Apple and Facebook. The latter even announced the development of cryptocurrency ‘Libra’ in June this year.
In my opinion, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are still in its early majority phase. At time of writing, the 270 billion industry has established itself within our traditional economy. With already 18 out of 21 million coins that have been mined, who will know what happen once Bitcoin has reached its max supply. It probably will become a scarce good. Moreover, with interest rates that almost hit 0% or become even negative in traditional banking, consumers need to find other ways of saving their money.
Thus, when do you think Bitcoin will die again?
Chang, S. (2018). Bitcoin ‘Died’ 90 Times In 2018. [online] Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-died-90-times-2018-120041001.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADHstc6qgbvnzvTr3uOC0-GhedKSvQ5E68b7_ahFQFovY9jIypF39VRkpqIDUlD5kGw4cVxGnf_fOjJUQnIJuswUHh0liJVFiDJhGe9bl9_WjMHR8QyLOVHkWbt3CpP489ar_XgObhK06jAMeo-wiX6GiFiznRTzn2fg84ttQyQR [Accessed 21 Sep. 2019]
Bambrough, B. (2019). Bitcoin Is Still Climbing: Is This Time Different? [online] Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/06/26/bitcoin-is-this-time-different/#5fd9dc2216d0 [Accessed on 21 Sep. 2019]
CCN (2019). ‘What is Bitcoin’ Ranked Among Top Google Searches in 2018. [online] Available at: https://www.ccn.com/what-is-bitcoin-ranked-among-top-google-searches-in-2018/ [Accessed on 21 Sep. 2019]
Is the ‘dying’ of a new (and revolutionary) technology not a common process of the development of the technology? As visualized in the hype cycle of Gartner a peak of inflated expectation takes place, which will be followed by a trough of disillusionment before it becomes evident that a technology can add (significant) value. The fact that it is claimed that the currency ‘dies’ all the time might be influenced by the close interaction with general society, as it is rare that everyone can come into close contact and even interact with a new technology before it has been commercialized. Lately, after its inflated hype, they have had their moment of disillusionment with the silent desire it will rise again. Every time it shows a small increase or there is a good sign of development their hype gets inflated again and ‘dies’ with a following disappointment.
In the 2018 edition of the hype cycle, blockchain has been identified at the beginning of the steap decline to disillusionment. I believe, the recent and more sustainable development of the technology are a signal that blockchain and its cryptocurrencies are climbing their trough and are on their way to maturity.
The only way Bitcoin actually dies is when another coin takes over its dominant position, goes past the first mover advantage. In my opinion there are plenty of better coins out there, that take away some of the constraints that Bitcoin has.
Hi Wouter, dying 90 times is a lot! I think Bitcoin (btc) will die once and for all when a working quantum computer is released. This is expected to be in the year 2027. Using quantum computing it will be able to break someone’s private keys using the hash of the public key. The public key is only visible when the address is used to send btc. I won’t go into depth, but it is possible. Of course people, still aware of their btc, could send it to a new quantum secure address. That way their btc can’t get stolen.
However: “Bitcoin 0.1 supported Bitcoin addresses just like today, but it also had a “pay to IP address” feature. When you used this, you’d connect to the IP and get the sender’s full public key, and then send to that. […] Pay-to-IP was removed around 0.5, I think.”
This is where the big problem arrises. All Satoshi’s btc are on an address created during ‘Bitcoin 0.1’. This means the public key is visible from this address. The same applies for all the other addresses created before ‘Bitcoin 0.6’. Either Satoshi has to send his btc to a new address to secure them, OR they will be stolen. On way or another, this will cause massive panic. The market can be flooded with cheap btc or satoshi is still alive…
Source: https://medium.com/@nopara73/stealing-satoshis-bitcoins-cc4d57919a2b
When we look at the chart from the creation of the Bitcoin (btc) until now, it is difficult to say that the Bitcoin actually died. As Jeannot Mets mentioned, Bitcoin instability is mainly due by its nature of being a new technology (it has been 10 years already). Due to this reason, the Bitcoin and any other cryptocurrencies have suffered like what Amazon, Apple, Microsoft ect. suffered during the Dotcom bubble. But in the end, the stocks and the Bitcoin have nowadays a way higher value than 5 to 10 years ago. The recovery face is quite done, and for the past 3 months it has been relatively stable by fluctuating between from 9000 to 12 000 dollars, even though it crashed again down 8,200 dollars. Moreover, due to the increasing interest rate, banks are finally interested in the blockchain based cryptocurrency as an alternative solution.
Now, Bitcoin might not be the best coin out of all the Altcoins in the markets, but as mentioned by Sander, it was the first one, and therefore became the reference value for all other coins (so are the dollars and Euro).
In this regard, i think Bitcoin will still survive its market hazard. To die once and for all, a new technology, which surpass all the aspects of the BTC and also the altcoins, needs to be created. If the quantum computer mentioned by Niels Adriaans fulfilled this condition, then BTC and all other Altcoin might die.
However, today no one actually knows for certain.