Intelligent vehicles like self-driving cars have been the hot topics in the world of technology and transportation for a while now. However, can airplanes be automated as well? The answer is yes, they can.
A survey of Airbus and Boeing pilots found that they only manually fly about 3-6 minutes per flight (Rice, 2019), while the rest of the flight is in autopilot mode. Automated technologies can lead to less accidents and incidents caused by human error. Furthermore, modern commercial airliners already have automated systems that can replicate pilots, manage engine power, control and navigate the aircraft, and in some cases, even complete landings (Rice, 2019).
Secondly, automated flights can solve the global pilot shortage that commercial aviation is currently facing. The global shortage is projected to increase further as demand for air travel continues to increase dramatically (Rice, 2019). Furthermore, pilot salary, and therefore expenditures can be reduced in one of the least profitable markets. These are one of the main reasons why many airlines favour using autonomous commercial flights. Airbus and Boeing are currently developing their own autonomous air taxi (Falk, 2017). These are, however, intended for short urban hops — but the step towards long flights should not be too big from this. It looks like we are not too far away from the first pilotless airliner after all.
Thus, automation in the cockpit is not a new thing and airliners support the idea of it. Yet, why do fully automated commercial flights sound like a futuristic idea? Here is why.
The automatic technology can malfunction. Pilots still intervene on a regular basis when the automatics don’t do what they’re supposed to (Business Insider, 2019). Recently, concerns among pilots have been growing after two brand new Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft from Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashed within the time span of four months due to a faulty anti-stall software, killing 346 people in total. Boeing has said the pilots were not to blame. Faulty automatic anti-stall software – called MCAS – has been blamed for both crashes, causing unexpected nosedives from the system (Business Insider, 2019).
Another main problem is the customers’ willingness to go on board. Approximately 60 percent of passengers in multiple similar studies said they were unwilling to fly on an autonomous commercial airliner (Rice & Winter, 2019). Furthermore, customers’ trust in fully automated airplanes will fall after every major accident due to the autopilot, or one that the autopilot was not able to handle. If an autonomous airplane falls out of the sky, we can be assured this will result in a huge news cycle and put the timeline of autonomous commercial flight back a decade, just like the two incidents with the 737 Max 8 have done (Rice, 2019).
Furthermore, automated flights cause complexity for legal institutions and insurances, which is slowing down further development of the automatic technology. Currently, it’s impossible to insure transport planes with fewer than two pilots. Insurers will not be able to insure self-flying planes, making them too risky for airlines to commission (Ellis, 2019). This is one of the reasons, next to the lack of consumer’s confidence in the technology, why I do not see automated planes happening in the foreseeable future.
Do you think that fully automated commercial flights are coming soon? If so, would you be willing to go on board?
Bibliography
Business Insider. (2019). Airbus says it has the technology to fly planes with no pilots, but the challenge will be convincing people to get on them. Business Insider. Accessed at
Ellis, C. (2019). Self-flying planes and the future of air travel. Air Charter Service. Accessed at
Falk, D. (2017). Self-Flying Planes May Arrive Sooner Than You Think. Here’s Why. Mach. Accessed at
Rice, S. (2019). Would You Fly on a Plane Without a Human Pilot? Forbes. Accessed at
Rice, S. and Winter, S. (2019). Despite Passenger Fears, Automation is the Future of Aviation. Discover Magazine. Accessed at
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2019/03/27/plane-aviation-automation-autopilot/#.XYpugEYzY2x.
Hi Xing,
You provide a good insight in why flying won’t be completely automated anytime soon. Yet, don’t you expect that airlines will start to cut costs by moving from two pilots to only one pilot per plane? As automated flying is advancing, including more and more safety nets to prevent catastrophes, the need for both a first and second officer is decreasing. Moreover, safety procedures could be run from an external location if necessary. So to answer your question, I don’t expect planes to be flying completely automated in the next five years, but I expect baby-steps into that direction.
Hi Lars, thank you for your reply.
I fully understand your point of view. However, cockpits are currently not designed to bear only one pilot. In the current setting, not all gauges and knobs are within the reach of one pilot. This means that big investments in new cockpits, thus new airplanes, are needed. However, as I said in my blog, the profits in the commercial aviation industry are too low to realize these kinds of investments. Airliners prioritize investments regarding efficiency to reduce expenditures rather than automatic technology. Secondly, having only one pilot in the cockpit can be too risky since the pilot is prone to fatigue or boredom. Furthermore, what if he or she is suicidal just like the pilot who caused the Germanwings crash a couple of years ago?
In case of an emergency, one single pilot cannot handle all the required procedures alone. During an emergency, pilots must communicate clearly with the cabin crew, air traffic control and the passengers all together. Besides, they must follow an emergency checklist while trying to steer the plane towards safety. I don’t think a single pilot could handle all this together.
Lastly, regarding your comment about running safety procedures from an external location, connections between the external location and the plane must be one hundred percent safe. This can, however, not yet be guaranteed.
To conclude, due to all these complex problems, I don’t see fully automated commercial flights happening. Of course, baby-steps will be made, but there is still a long way to go.
Hi Xing, I think this is a really interesting topic! Human error is the most common cause for aircraft accidents. Like you said, this could be significantly reduced by automation. I think it is important for customers to begin to understand that automation (i.e. autopilot) is often safer. But testing with positive results and subsequent education of customers will be needed to create a change in mind set.
On a side note, I read an interesting article that stated significant costs could be saved if the cockpit would be redesigned so that the space could be used for carrying more passengers (i.e. eliminating pilots). Of course I don’t think that this will become true any time soon. Like you said, passengers are already skeptic of air taxis for short distant flights..