One of the biggest concerns towards the improvement of AI is human worker replacement. Most people view the adoption of robots as a threat to human worker. However, the influence of AI to job market is complex and uncertain rather than a simple threat. Here are the reasons:
The influence is also complex because the different types of workers are affected by the robot’s adoption in different ways. The replacement occurs starting from lower tasks to higher tasks which requires softer skills, from mechanical, to analytical, to intuitive, to empathetic by order (Huang, 2018). Robots replaces workers who perform well-defined cognitive and manual tasks (Autor, 2003). Workers in transportation, logistics, administrative support and production occupations are at risk (Frey, 2017). However, the adoption of robots complements workers in performing nonroutine tasks such as problem-solving and complex communication activities (Autor, 2003).
The influence is uncertain because there are two types of job effects, displacement effect and productivity effect, and it is unclear which effect outweigh the other (Acemoglu, 2017). Displacement effect, as name suggests, means robots directly replacing workers from tasks that they were performing (Acemoglu, 2017), which affect employment and wages negatively. Productivity effect means other industries and tasks increasing their demand for labor, which suggests that the adoption of robots does not necessarily reduce the total amount of job opportunity but rather shift job opportunity from one industry to another (Acemoglu, 2017). It is true that robots may reduce the employment of low-skilled workers, but no significant relationship is found between the increased use of industrial robots and overall employment (Graetz, 2018). New technologies can complement labor by introducing new tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage, such as tasks require creative and social intelligence (Acemoglu, 2018). In the long run, if capital is significantly cheaper relative to labor, automation will advance rapidly and displace human labor. Otherwise, the framework yields a balanced growth path in which automaton and the creation of new tasks go hand-in-hand (Acemoglu, 2018).
Huang, M. and Rust, R. (2018). Artificial Intelligence in Service. Journal of Service Research, 21(2), pp.155-172.
Autor, D., Levy, F. and Murnane, R. (2003). The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), pp.1279-1333.
Frey, C. and Osborne, M. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, pp.254-280.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2017). Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2018). The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment. American Economic Review, 108(6), pp.1488-1542.
Graetz, G. and Michaels, G. (2018). Robots at Work. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), pp.753-768.
