The world is becoming more and more technology driven – IoT, big data analytics, AI and robots. We are living in an age in which automation technologies such as robots play an essential role. Automation has many benefits such as it increases productivity, optimises processes and saves costs (McKinsey & Company, 2017). However, the increase in automation also raises growing concerns of workers about being replaced by these technologies. Studies have shown that 1.5 million UK workers are at a high risk of being replaced by automation (White et al., 2019) and that automation will steal 20% of all UK jobs in 2030 (McKinsey & Company, 2017). Furthermore, research by the economists Frey and Osborne (2017) has shown that about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk of job loss due to automation. The question therefore arises, whether workers have to fear to be replaced by automation?
Some economists and researcher believe in the skilled-biased technological change theory. This theory suggests that the demand for low skilled workers decreases relative to the demand for high skilled workers due to technological changes (Bound & Johnson, 1995; Acemoglu & Autor, 2011). According to this approach, automation therefore decreases the demand for low-skilled workers. However, others such as the labour economists David Autor argue that automation does not decrease the overall level of employment, but rather substitute and complement jobs. Jobs that require repetitive tasks are likely to be replaces by automation whereas jobs that perform non routine cognitive tasks are complemented by automation (Autor et al., 2003).
What many people do not consider is that automation technologies also create new jobs. Automation changes the types of jobs available in the market by creating new job opportunities. Many new jobs have been created over the past years, due to automation technologies such as software developers, programmers and data analysists. Therefore, I do not believe that workers have to fear that they are replaced by automation. Rather than worrying about being replaced by automation, workers should invest in good education and acquire automation-proof skills such as communication, management and creative skills. Robots can replace humans in many tasks, however, some skills especially inter-personal skills, cannot be replaced by robots.
References:
Autor, D. H., & Acemoglu, D. (2011). Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings. In Handbook of labor economics (Vol. 4, pp. 1043-1171). Elsevier.
Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003). The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. The Quarterly journal of economics, 118(4), 1279-1333.
Bound, J., & Johnson, G. (1995). What are the causes of rising wage inequality in the United States?. Economic Policy Review, 1(1).
Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?. Technological forecasting and social change, 114, 254-280.
McKinsey & Company. (2017). Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages. Retrieved 25 March 2020, from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.
White, S., Lacey, A., & Ardanaz-Badia, A. (2019). The probability of automation in England: 2011 and 2017.
Dear Laura,
The points you raised are very compelling. The main interest of this article is something I have been wondering myself more than once. Hence, you captivated my interest from the very start.
I do agree with you that repetitive tasks will be soon taken over by robots as there are currently already programs (such as UiPath) in place that do exactly that. Furthermore, I believe it is in the people’s interest that repetitive tasks are taken over by robotics as repetitive tasks can pose a risk to a person’s physical health being such as tendinitis and carpal tunnel (scottsafe.co.uk, 2018). Furthermore, it can create mental health and general wellbeing problems such as stress, unhappiness and extreme boredom (scottsafe.co.uk, 2018).
However, I had a question do you think more jobs will be created through automation in comparison with the jobs that will disappear?
Cheers,
Thibault