For the past ten years, companies have been working on getting cars to be able to drive themselves. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google is already testing a fleet of self-driving cars in Phoenix, Arizona. Furthermore, Tesla is gathering data at an increasingly rapid pace, especially with the introduction of the Model 3. These new companies that are positioning themselves somewhere in the car market could prove to become significant disrupters to the car space.
The first possible threat to incumbents is that once true self-driving becomes available, it will set the standard for the rest of the industry. The companies that can provide autonomous driving will be able to serve the biggest portion of the market. Another threat comes in combination with other services that are enabled by autonomous driving, like car-sharing platforms. These platforms will further mitigate the need for car ownership and possibly cannibalize a large portion of car sales. Just think of all cars in existence that are used only an hour per day, car-sharing will allow cars to be utilized far more per day and decrease the total amount of cars needed.
Luckily autonomous driving also provides significant opportunities for the car industry as a whole. One will be numerous new business models that will be enabled by autonomous driving. A car could provide a variety of entertainment services while somebody is travelling, diversifying the revenue streams. Furthermore, new data services like optimization and fleet management, like for car-sharing businesses, could provide car manufactures with significant services revenue streams. And if car manufacturers would also be able to develop their autonomous driving software, this could be sold in for example different kinds of monthly subscriptions. This will allow car manufactures to personalize their cars even further and capture more value from the customers that are willing to pay.
All things considered, autonomous driving could be both a driver of revenue growth within the industry while being a major risk at the same time. Companies now relevant within the industry and that are not working on an autonomous future could be left behind. So, even though the development and legal frameworks could take decades, the future will most certainly be autonomous.
