Have you ever wonder how our world would look like if we had the ability to see the future? With the recent technological advance, more precisely the development of distributed computing systems, it is now possible to predict the future with more certainty than ever before.

I am sure you all have heard about prediction markets, where participants trade the outcome of events via the Internet. These markets are built on the concept known as block chain. Block chain is a global online ledger that records, links and secures transactions using cryptography. The system is outside the control of governments and other central authorities, which allows predictions markets to reach much larger number of people than ever before (Metz, 2017b). The broader span of the block chain results in prediction markets accepting so many bets that the accuracy of predictions increases tremendously.

According to Matt Liston, one of the people that created the prediction market platform Augur, removing betting limits with the help of block chain systems will allow an informed trader to “come in and trade with enough capital to move the market and correct it.” In this way, predictions will become more specific and more accurate since the people with the best information (no matter who or where they are) will be able to make their bets (Metz, 2017a). If the number of people betting becomes large enough, there would be enough money pledged on enough outcomes to make it possible for us to know what will happen in the future with significantly high certainty.

However, to be efficient and to pay out, prediction market should know what the actual outcome of certain bet was. While some traditional markets leave this decision on the house, Augur has developed an engine that with the use of the block chain system records the actual outcomes once they happen in real time. As one of Augur’s investors has said: “It’s not just about predicting what is in the future. It’s about knowing what is happening in the present.” (Metz, 2017a)

To conclude, the development of new distributed computing systems has already started to change our world. Tapped into the wisdom of the crowds, block chain has enabled prediction markets to foresee the upcoming events with greater certainty than ever before. But what does this imply for us? How would the block chain change our society, our world? Can Augur predict even that?

What is your bet?

Reference List:

Metz, C. (2017a). Forget Bitcoin. The Blockchain Could Reveal What’s True Today and Tomorrow. [online] WIRED. Available at: https://www.wired.com/2017/03/forget-bitcoin-blockchain-reveal-whats-true-today-tomorrow/ [Accessed 21 Sep. 2017].
Metz, C. (2017b). The Blockchain Fuels Startups—Unlike Any You’ve Ever Seen. [online] WIRED. Available at: https://www.wired.com/story/blockchain-fueled-startups/ [Accessed 21 Sep. 2017].

Everyone has heard about self-diving cars and we all hope that one day they will make our roads safer and more secure. What shall we do until that day comes?
Each year, about 1.25 million people die as a consequence of road traffic crashes (WHO, 2017). According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, about 17% of these fatalities and 80% of all traffic accidents are caused by distracted driving (Adams, 2017). Why are we so distracted?
“Smartphoning at the wheel” is one of the major reasons why people get distracted why driving. Texting, checking Facebook or Instagram, snapchatting, etc. result in 1.6 million crashes each year (Snyder, 2017). Furthermore, cars themselves are becoming more and more distracting with manufacturers adding feature after feature that can potentially pull our attention from the road.
A group of Canadian researches, led by Dr. Fakhri Karray, may have come up with a solution to the problem of drivers’ distraction. With the help of artificial intelligence, the team has developed a prototype system that monitors driver body position and determines whether the observed distraction is dangerous. The deep learning algorithm considers not only hand and head movements but also traffic and weather conditions, car’s speed, and exact location. In this way, the system is able to determine degree of danger of the observed situation. Depending of the level of risk of an accident, the system gives different signals to the driver to inform him/her of the potential danger and encourage him/her to take corrective actions. The team is now working on enabling the car to take full control over the vehicle to prevent accidents from happening. Although the projects is still in the development phase, the researchers believe that the system will be ready for implementation within a year. However, it might take much longer time for car manufacturers to decide how exactly to integrate the new system. (Adams, 2017)
Although the technological solution proposed by Dr. Karray and his team may not look that impressive as self-driving cars, it is a step in the right direction and if implemented, it will had a tremendous effect on roads’ safety.
Reference list:
Adams, E. (2017). Wanna Stop Distracted Driving? Make Cars That Watch Their Humans. [online] WIRED. Available at: https://www.wired.com/story/distracted-driving-research/ [Accessed 19 Sep. 2017].
Snyder, A. (2017). Texting and Driving Accident Statistics – Distracted Driving. [online] edgarsnyder.com. Available at: https://www.edgarsnyder.com/car-accident/cause-of-accident/cell-phone/cell-phone-statistics.html [Accessed 19 Sep. 2017].
World Health Organization. (2017). Road traffic injuries. [online] Available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs358/en/