Explainable AI – Understanding how Artificial Intelligence “Thinks”

7

October

2018

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AI is prone to basis in its’ data analysis that can have potentially fatal consequences. In 2017, an algorithm supposed to predict the degree of care that a patient should be given in a hospital, decided that patients with asthma are in the lowest risk group due to the better care that these patients received in the data set that the computer was analysing (Feudtner et al, 2009).

 

Avoiding Mistakes

In most of the cases, AI operates in a black box, making it impossible for humans to understand the reasoning of how the AI came to a particular outcome. The field of explainable AI is concerned with AI giving reasons for its decisions and hence moving to a glass box instead of the black box. The main problem in this field is the trade-off between complexity, and not knowing what the AI is doing, and simplicity, reducing the functionality of AI (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2018). Researchers are trying to overcome this by creating AI that is reading AI,  looking at the long, machine-readable text data and recoding it back to information that is understandable to a human (Gershgorn, 2016).

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Source: https://towardsdatascience.com/explainable-ai-the-data-scientists-new-challenge-f7cac935a5b4

 

What is it good for?

Apart from making systems prone to bias, understanding the reasoning of AI might also help to build better AI since it is often very hard for programers to figure out why AI is not performing as requested (Gershgorn, 2017).

Understanding why AI is making decisions, would not only enable us to find logical mistakes in the “reasoning of AI”, but give us a tool to learn ourselves. Think about AI used to diagnosing heart diseases based on MRT scans. Understanding where AI is “looking” at in the scans might enable cardiologists and radiologists to find new manufacturizations of a diseases and  ultimately improve the human knowledge.

 

The next Holy Grail of AI

To me developing working big scale Explainable AI would mark the next Holy Grail in this area, and even beyond. Being able to utilise the analysis skills of AI coupled with human reasoning and our ability for cross-functional thinking by giving “exchanging thoughts” with AI, would give mankind the most powerful tool of the 21st century.

 

References: 

Diop, M. D. (2018, June 14). Explainable AI: The data scientists’ new challenge – Towards Data Science. Retrieved October 7, 2018, from https://towardsdatascience.com/explainable-ai-the-data-scientists-new-challenge-f7cac935a5b4
Feudtner, C., Levin, J. E., Srivastava, R., Goodman, D. M., Slonim, A. D., Sharma, V., . . . Hall, M. (2009). How Well Can Hospital Readmission Be Predicted in a Cohort of Hospitalized Children? A Retrospective, Multicenter Study. Pediatrics,123(1), 286-293. doi:10.1542/peds.2007-3395
Gershgorn, D. (2016, December 20). We don’t understand how AI make most decisions, so now algorithms are explaining themselves. Retrieved October 7, 2018, from https://qz.com/865357/we-dont-understand-how-ai-make-most-decisions-so-now-algorithms-are-explaining-themselves/
Gershgorn, D. (2017, December 18). AI is now so complex its creators can’t trust why it makes decisions. Retrieved October 7, 2018, from https://qz.com/1146753/ai-is-now-so-complex-its-creators-cant-trust-why-it-makes-decisions/
PricewaterhouseCoopers. (2018). Explainable AI. Retrieved October 7, 2018, from https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/audit-assurance/risk-assurance/services/technology-risk/technology-risk-insights/explainable-ai.html
Sample, I. (2017, November 05). Computer says no: Why making AIs fair, accountable and transparent is crucial. Retrieved October 7, 2018, from https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/nov/05/computer-says-no-why-making-ais-fair-accountable-and-transparent-is-crucial

 

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B2B E-Commerce – The Giant in the Shadows of B2C

14

September

2018

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What is E-Commerce?

Before going into details about B2B E-Commerce, it is important to understand what E-Commerce itself is. In its’ most basic definition E-Commerce is “any commercial transaction conducted online” (ECommerce Guide, 2018). This means whenever you buy or sell anything online you are involved in E-Commerce. Business to Consumer (B2) E-Commerce, where a private customer buys a good online form a commercial business, is something that most likely everyone in this group has already engaged in, for example by buying something from Amazon. B2B E-Commerce (Business to Business), is the processes of businesses selling goods online to other businesses, either via marketplaces such as Alibaba.com or directly, such as Salesforce.com.

The Awakening Giant

When most people talk about E-Commerce they automatically think about companies like Amazon or Best Buy. However, today the B2B E-Commerce market (7.7 Trillion USD). is more than three times the size of the B2C market (2.3 Tn USD) according to statista.com. This discrepancy is predicted to increase even further with the B2B E-Commerce market predicted to grow to 12 trillion USD by 2020 and the B2C market “only” growing to 2.5 trillion USD, making the B2B market almost four times the size of the B2C market (Frost & Sullivan, 2018). More and more business-customers are willing to engage in online business, largely enabled by many tech savvy millennials now coming into positions that are responsible for purchasing. Growing markets include especially China, that is today already the largest country in terms of E-Commerce revenue (Business.com, 2018).

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Source: https://www.shopify.com/enterprise/global-ecommerce-statistics

Manyfold advantages for the companies with some challenges

By switching to E-Commerce from traditional body based selling, companies can drastically decrease their overhead costs, since the E-Commerce platforms require less personell and are easily and very cheap to scale and of high flexibility (eSalesTrack, 2018). This can be of high importance in industries with seasonal or irregular demand patterns. Further, E-Commerce allows for sales 24/7, which might be interesting for smaller companies with global customers, that do not have to rely on sales personnel in different time zones any more. Challenges by the new sales channel include the high upfront installation costs, timely implementation and higher costs of potential server down-time due to lost sales.

The business potential varies by industry, but overall, the growing B2B market offers a huge opportunity for many established companies, that are just now moving into this new way of engaging with their customer.

 

 

References:

eSalesTrack, 2018; http://www.esalestrack.com/blog/2008/09/advantages-and-disadvantages-of.html

eCommerce Guid, 2018, https://ecommerceguide.com/guides/what-is-ecommerce/

Business.com, 2018, https://www.business.com/articles/10-of-the-largest-ecommerce-markets-in-the-world-b/

Frost & Sullivan, 2018, https://ww2.frost.com/news/press-releases/southeast-asia-b2c-e-commerce-market-expands-285-q4-2017-gross-merchandise-value-over-us6-billion-finds-frost-sullivan/

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