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The penguin problem is a common phenomenon explaining the adoption of technology or innovation. Different from the Gartner hype cycle or the Innovation adoption cycle, the Penguing Problem states that people will only adopt when everyone moves, so no one moves.

The Penguin Problem is closely associated with network effects. A platform or technology is only valuable to me when many people are also adopting the platform or technology. But someone has to take the first step.

“The Penguin Problem” — No one moves unless everyone moves, so no one moves.

In HealthCare, the adoption of electronic medical records (EMR) faced the Penguin Problem. In 2009, (Lynn, 2009) and (Kuraitis, 2009) portray the problem in the industry. Doctors were reluctant to utilise EMR as they did not perceive any additional benefits to their “current” ways of working. Today, EMR is the basis in which our medical data is archived.

The adoption of some technology is low risk: switching from Hyves to Facebook was free, and the platforms were not mutually exclusive. If Facebook did not live up to the hype, people could always go back to Hyves. For the adoption of EMR, implementation costs and learning costs were involved, but the electronic medical records could, temporarily, be run next to the paperwork in case of not living up to the expectations. Viteezy runs an algorithm, based on your answers to pre-existing questions, and gives recommendations to certain vitamins and supplements. Taking vitamins and supplements usually is low risk, but may be high reward.

But what happens when the adoption of a certain technology is high risk? What if certain data can be hacked or used for reasons that you are unaware of? What if the technology affects your health insufficiently or negatively? Artificial Intelligence in healthcare is upcoming, and the results are promising. AI can do small tasks, like automate reminders to take medication, or complex matters, like identifying people at high risk or personalizing dosages of medication. Many patients may be reluctant to leave complex tasks and decision-making to “robots”, even when the results are reviewed by a doctor.

Some may argue that human error is the greatest error, so that AI is more robust. But, the AI is made by human hands, exposing it to human error once more. However, the risk of human error in creating the AI is much smaller if we demand it is reviewed by multiple parties and thoroughly tested for errors. Furthermore, removing bias in decision-making is necessary to avoid the AI taking ethical decisions that the human brain cannot even process (like the “trolley problem”).

The adoption of technology innovation in healthcare will remain an intricate problem. Everyone believes the predictions of the innovation and the benefits they may bring, but no one wants to be the first. “Time shall heal all wounds” may be a cliché, but as time goes by and results remain positive and promising, some early adopters will help the group of penguins jump into the sea and reap the benefits.

Kuraitis, V. (2009, September 2). Overcoming The Penguin Problem: Setting Expectations for EHR Adoption. https://e-caremanagement.com/overcoming-the-penguin-problem-setting-expectations-for-ehr-adoption/

Lynn, J. (2009, October 23). Penguin Problem in EMR Adoption | Healthcare IT Today. https://www.healthcareittoday.com/2009/10/23/penguin-problem-in-emr-adoption/

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Recently, I was listening to the radio on a warm Sunday morning. I was cleaning my house while listening to some tunes playing on Radio 538. When the commercials brutally interrupted the fine playlist, I was intrigued. A commercial, by a financing company, gave an example of a business owner saying: “I should be getting into the Metaverse in a couple of years. That means I have to hire 2 dozen software engineers now!”. Of course, we all agree that software engineering takes time, and getting a business ready to enter Metaverse does not happen overnight. But the future of Metaverse is still so uncertain. So, when is the right time to start taking actions? When should companies set aside resources to take the next step?

I thought I had found an insightful article. In a September Gartner Blog, Robert Hetu writes about Should Retailers Take The Metaverse Plunge? Hetu starts by explaining Metaverse, and illustrating the challenges and contemplations businesses face. You’d think Gartner would give some recommendations like “Start saving money” or “Hire software engineers”, but no such thing is true. The article concludes: “Gartner recommends that retailers take a strategic and measured approach that will support learning, customer and associate experimentation and opportunistic revenue exploitation.” (Hetu, 2022). In other words, they don’t know either.

I recognise that the journey towards Metaverse or technological innovation is different for every entity. But how are companies supposed to take strategic and measured approaches, when the majority does not even understand Metaverse? I reckon that once they understand Metaverse and where it is headed, they are too late to step in at a time that is of competitive advantage.

A different article, by Valerie Zeller from Sciforma, identifies two kinds of Metaverse. First, the Metaverse as outlined by Zuckerberg, virtual-only life. Second, a 3D, virtual environment that can be utilized for marketing purposes and even new commercial channels – Balenciaga’s digital-only fashion (Zeller, 2022). The first is more difficult to understand and more of a long-term vision for Metaverse, compared to the latter. The latter is a useful distinction of Metaverse. That means that businesses should be investing resources into Metaverse now.

I think that utilizing the early adoption of Metaverse as soon as possible will most likely provide businesses with competitive advantage of early-movers and first-entrants in the development of Metaverse. But, companies should recognise that if Metaverse remains a Hype, rather than a Prediction, the innovations costs may not be outweighed by revenue.

Hetu, R. (2022, September 6). Gartner Blog Network. https://blogs.gartner.com/robert-hetu/should-retailers-take-the-metaverse-plunge/?_ga=2.233581529.696785290.1665395241-305281627.1665395241

Zeller, V. (2022, August 29). What Does the Metaverse Mean for Businesses? – Sciforma. https://www.sciforma.com/blog/what-does-the-metaverse-mean-for-businesses/