About democratizing data and ending business bottlenecks.

29

September

2020

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As of the second quarter of 2020, the seven most valuable companies on Earth are big data giants. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Tencent, Alibaba. On average, these companies’ stocks have returned almost 1500% since 2010 (1). In the same time, the global economy has grown only 28% (2). World growth is clearly centralizing around big data.

In class, we discussed a lot about how these companies manage to continuously reinvent themselves, innovate and build habit-forming applications and products: customer-driven development, quick learning processes, platforms. Innovation, in turn, fuels talent and investment acquisition, which fuels innovation. A feedback loop manifests. The base for this innovation is increasingly becoming data, which remains steadily in the hands of a few powerful private companies.

Throughout recent years, critics have continued to demand that these companies stop collecting data. But there’s no incentive. Conversely, ambitious startups thrive to collect more and more customer data, to initiate their own positive feedback loop.

A different approach revolves around altering the nature of data. Namely, turning it from private to public. The main argument for data democratization goes something like this. If data was available to everybody, it would not only enhance the productivity of a few, but of many. It could empower employees of all levels to more independent decision making (3). Also, it could reduce the number of failing business ventures, which constitute a huge waste of human time and talent (4).

At this point, I believe that it is important to clarify some different views on data democratization. Proponents advocate a model, where only general data shall be publicly available whereas individual level data shall stay strictly anonymous. That way, tech firms would not be able to tailor content to the individual, reducing things such as social network isolation. Opponents, on the other hand, point out the potential threats of data misuse and security problems.

Also, different models exist. Some argue for general democratization, while others only advocate democratization on an organization-internal level. Either way, the problem of data bottlenecks has to be addressed. Whether through data democratization or other means, such as data taxes (5) is yet to be determined. Otherwise, it is not unreasonable to expect tech giants to become much more powerful than entire states.

(1) Yahoo finance. I looked up the prices and calculated the figure myself (exact: 1440%, Facebook and Alibaba excluded as they weren’t public in 2010).
(2) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2019&locations=1W&start=2010
(3) https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2017/07/24/what-is-data-democratization-a-super-simple-explanation-and-the-key-pros-and-cons/
(4) The Lean Startup by Eric Ries
Image: https://blogs.informatica.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/data-democracy-300×253.jpg

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The Corona Crisis: A Breakthrough for Online Grocery and Meal Kit Services?

17

September

2020

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About two months ago, I signed up for HelloFresh after weeks of weighing my options. The ever-growing selection of online grocery and meal kit services is not making this any easier. There are also Picnic, Amazon Fresh, FreshDirect, GoBio, Foodist. All come with a slightly different focus, but similar promises: fresh groceries dropped off at your doorstep. You have likely heard from some of these services before, but chances are that you haven’t considered signing up until this very year.

Suddenly, many have started considering these services. Why? Could the corona pandemic be the tipping point for online groceries? Could it be the event that brings these services from early adopters to the mainstream?

Turns out that it just might. Since January, HelloFresh’s stock value has doubled, despite net zero returns on the DAX or S&P 500. The Berlin based company is expected to double its revenue from 2019 (1). To be able to grow at this pace, they have been offering free food deliveries and substantial discounts for getting friends to sign up. It is tough to tell whether this viral growth model will meet its limits anytime soon.

HelloFresh is not alone. Picnic’s managing director for Germany has also reported that the startup has used the past few months to expand rapidly (2). This begs the question, though: Is this growth actually sustainable? Or is it simply a consequence of an event-induced increase in subscriptions and thus destined to fall when the crisis ends?

On the one hand, as trials and corona measures expire, some customers will inevitably flood back into brick-and-mortar supermarkets. It would be unreasonable to expect that every customer won during these unprecedented times is in for the long haul.

However, a couple of trends appear to be aiding the rise of grocery delivery services. The first one is based around the idea of healthy living. Since the dawn of this century, global organic food sales have almost quintupled (3). Positioning themselves as healthy and convenient alternatives is at the core of many of these services’ value propositions. They tempt potential customers with healthy recipes, organic food and high-quality ingredients.

Another aiding factor has been brought about by a very unlikely demographic: senior citizens. The pandemic has kickstarted many initiatives which involve delivering groceries to the elderly. Both, the protection from crowds and the reduction of physical endeavors such as heavy lifting contribute to their rising engagement. While the elderly are generally slow to adapt to new services, they are also loyal once won over. In fact, online grocery shoppers of all demographics tend to be loyal to their service of choice (4).

Nonetheless, grocery delivery and meal kit services measured as a proportion of total grocery sales still appear to be insignificant. In Germany (2019) only 0.8% of all grocery expenditures were spent online. This year, this number is predicted to rise to at least 1.1%, the largest jump in market share yet (5). Factor in the general market growth rate of 4.7% and the entire industry is worth € 1.5 billion in Germany alone. So even if this year might not be the tipping point, it might be the beginning of an exponential growth phase.

(1) https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/commerce-brands-unicorns/hellofresh-kein-ende-in-sicht-analyst-holt-hammer-kursziel-raus-20207176.html

(2) https://lebensmittelpraxis.de/zentrale-management/28260-picnic-die-erwartungshaltung-ist-sehr-hoch.html

(3) https://www.statista.com/statistics/273090/worldwide-sales-of-organic-foods-since-1999/

(4) https://www.businessinsider.com/online-grocery-report-2020?international=true&r=US&IR=T

(5) https://de.statista.com/outlook/40060000/102/lebensmittel/europa#market-revenue

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