My vision of the medical treatment industry in Germany in the year 2050 – Utopia or rather a dystopia?

9

October

2019

5/5 (2)

The problems in the German medical treatment industry are multifarious (Müller, 2018). Besides having unnecessary and badly executed medical treatments, medicine is costly (Tautz, 2018) and people from the countryside are suffering from a decreasing number of medical care due to the rural exodus of many doctors (Kölsch, 2018). For example, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has a need for doctoral replacement of around 25% because of the previously mentioned reasons (Korzilius, 2008). Nonetheless, not only the countryside is suffering from an undersupply of doctors as 52 000 doctors are expected to retire in Germany until 2020 (DAZ, 2010), but also hospitals are missing 80 000 caregivers currently (Heine, 2018). Furthermore, the absence of IT-networks or standards for data transfer (Banse, 2018) are fundamental reasons for inefficiencies and a poor allocation of resources in the Germany medical treatment industry (SVZ, 2017).

However, change drivers such as the technological development, digitization and new customer needs could potentially enable an enhanced medical treatment in the future (Gerst, 2015). First, the E-Health trend impacts the interaction between patient and service provider and simplifies the self-management of the patient via (mobile) health applications (Wicks, 2014). Secondly, technological developments such as the advancements in big data analysis, self-learning AI deep learning algorithms or the digitization in general allow an improvement in the analysis of patient data, better forecasts, prevention of upcoming illnesses and a rectified interconnectivity between the stakeholders in the medical treatment field (Ehneß, 2018). Additionally, the technological development also offers advancements on the hardware side. For example, hyperloop systems or drones could potentially allow a different medical treatment infrastructure (Rosser, 2018). Last but not least, biotechnical developments in genetic manipulation (Miller, 2018) or in reproduction of organs could facilitate a lifesaving opportunity for patients (Wallace, 2018).

In the following part I will elaborate on my vision for the medical treatment in Germany in the year 2050. In order to empower a vital discussion, I would be keen on knowing if you can identify with my vision of medical treatment in the year 2050. Ask yourself, if ethical aspects such as morality or freedom are considered.

1. Home (-station) treatment
The HomeStation is an interactive diagnostic and robotic system for home use. It can take over general medical tasks, replaces or supports nursing staff and thus guarantees 24/7 medical care. Part of that home treatment is the use of wearables, for example electronic medical tattoos or sensors, which are on the one hand able to measure data regarding blood sugar, respiratory rate etc. (Kraft, 2019) and are on the other hand able to transmit that data to the relevant device or doctor. The role of the doctor will be taken by a robot (Yasa, 2018) who will consult the patient based on 24/7 tracked data. In addition, the robot performs minor medical treatments such as blood sampling or vaccinations. Finally, a 3D-printers ensures an immediate supply of medication, prevents drug abuse and provides better drug treatment through networking with other systems (Soleil, 2019).

2. Stationary care
Stationary care includes supra regional hubs, local hospitals and hubs of expertise for special medical fields. These are connected via drones and an underground network of hyperloops to ensure a fast and efficient treatment of every patient, independent of the location of the patient. Treatment at the surgery will be performed by surgical robots (Crawford, 2016), which are more precise, faster and risk-free. Therefore, badly executed medical treatments can be avoided. Additionally, due to the development in biotech, new organs can be delivered on demand and personalized (Pollack, 2018). A further benefit of the advancements in biotech is the prenatal and postnatal repair of severe genetic defects through genetic manipulation (Sakuma and Yamamoto, 2018).

By using this vision as a guiding principle, the medical treatment industry improves in terms of interconnectivity, flexibility, resource allocation, quality, costs and equality of treatment. Nevertheless, the risks are ubiquitous as there are side and ethical effects of genetic manipulation, as well as a reduction of human individuality by using robots. Therefore, the question arises if humankind should detach itself from its natural state and “design” people by reproducing organs? I am really looking forward hearing your opinion on this very relevant topic.

References:
Banse, P. (2018) Digitalisierung der Medizin – Das deutsche Gesundheitswesen ist zu wenig vernetzt. Available at: https://www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de/digitalisierung-der-medizin-das-deutsche-gesundheitswesen.976.de.html?dram:article_id=413494 (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Crawford, M. (2016) Top 6 Robotic Applications in Medicine – ASME. Available at: https://www.asme.org/topics-resources/content/top-6-robotic-applications-in-medicine (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

DAZ (2010) Neue Studie zum Ärztemangel: Knapp 52.000 Ärzte gehen bis 2020 in Ruhestand. Available at: https://www.deutsche-apotheker-zeitung.de/news/artikel/2010/09/03/knapp-52-000-aerzte-gehen-bis-2020-in-ruhestand (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Ehneß, S. (2019) Wie sieht die Medizin der Zukunft aus? Available at: https://www.healthcare-computing.de/wie-sieht-die-medizin-der-zukunft-aus-a-833099/ (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Gerst, T. (2015) Zukunft der Medizin: Trendstudie will den Weg weisen. Available at: https://www.aerzteblatt.de/archiv/171346/Zukunft-der-Medizin-Trendstudie-will-den-Weg-weisen (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Heine, H. (2018) Personalmangel in Krankenhäusern: 35,7 Millionen Überstunden – Politik – Tagesspiegel. Available at: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/personalmangel-in-krankenhaeusern-35-7-millionen-ueberstunden/22706004.html (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Kölsch, T. (2018) Medizinischer Nachwuchs: Landflucht und Landarzt-Mangel. Available at: https://www.general-anzeiger-bonn.de/ratgeber/fit-und-gesund/landflucht-und-landarzt-mangel_aid-43810019 (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Korzilius, H. (2008) Hausärztemangel in Deutschland: Die große Landflucht. Available at: https://www.aerzteblatt.de/archiv/59015/Hausaerztemangel-in-Deutschland-Die-grosse-Landflucht (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Kraft, D. (2019) 12 innovations that will revolutionize the future of medicine, National Geographic magazine. Available at: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/01/12-innovations-technology-revolutionize-future-medicine (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Miller, J. (2018) The Future of Medicine. Available at: https://hms.harvard.edu/news/future-medicine (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Müller, T. (2018) Gesundheitssystem Deutschland: Trotz hoher Gesundheitsausgaben – bei der Lebenserwartung hinken wir hinterher. Available at: https://www.aerztezeitung.de/medizin/krankheiten/herzkreislauf/article/976013/deutschland-hohe-gesundheitsausgaben-und-geringe-lebenserwartung.html (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Rosser, J. C. et al. (2018) ‘Surgical and Medical Applications of Drones: A Comprehensive Review’, JSLS : Journal of the Society of Laparoendoscopic Surgeons. doi: 10.4293/JSLS.2018.00018.

Sakuma, T. and Yamamoto, T. (2018) ‘Genome editing for dissecting and curing human genetic diseases’, Journal of Human Genetics, 63(2), p. 105. doi: 10.1038/s10038-017-0380-0.

Soleil, V. (2019) 10 Possible Medical Treatments of the Future. Life Advancer. Available at: https://www.lifeadvancer.com/possible-future-medical-treatments/ (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

SVZ (2017) ‘Ländervergleich: Medizinische Versorgung: Gut ausgestattet, aber ineffizient. Available at: https://www.svz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/medizinische-versorgung-gut-ausgestattet-aber-ineffizient-id18296516.html (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Szent-Ivanyi, T. (2014) Unnötige Todesfälle in deutschen Kliniken. Available at: https://www.fr.de/ratgeber/gesundheit/unnoetige-todesfaelle-deutschen-kliniken-11233271.html (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Tautz, D. (2018) Gesundheitssystem: Hohe Kosten, trotzdem Mittelmaß. Available at: https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2018-03/gesundheitssystem-deutschland-bruttoinlandsprodukt-lebenserwartung (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

Wallace, L. (2018) Reproductive tech will let future humans inhabit the body they truly want, Clinical Endocrinology. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2265.2009.03625.x.

Wicks, P. et al. (2014) ‘Innovations in e-health’, Quality of Life Research. doi: 10.1007/s11136-013-0458-x.

Yasa, D. (2018) Why robots could soon replace our doctors. Available at: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/health/body-soul-daily/why-robots-could-soon-replace-our-doctors/news-story/9c33db2f25e0fff6184603b38cdc641f (Accessed: 5 October 2019).

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What´s up automotive industry?

10

September

2019

5/5 (3)

The automotive industry is currently in a vast turmoil, thus nobody is able to predict the future as well as to forecast which technologies will have the biggest impact on the automotive industry. Nevertheless, it’s inevitable that a technological wave is disrupting the industry and car companies are forced to react (Blackman, 2019). Besides providing a brief glance on the most impactful changes in the automotive industry, I would like foster a vital discussion, asking for your opinion on the most important technologies and the future of the automotive industry.

First, passing by the technology of electrified cars is impossible when analyzing the current automotive industry. It is more than just it`s propulsion technology but rather a step towards cleaner roadways and carbon reduced emissions. Therefore, it comes by no surprise that sales of electric cars are peaking at around 5.1 million cars in 2018 (IEA, 2019) , while being at around 200 000 in 2013 (Kane, 2016). Moreover the rise of importance is underlined by the fact that electric vehicles will amount up to 35% of all global new car sales by 2040 (Bannon, 2016). Secondly, the invention of vehicles that are not in need of any human intervention is called autonomous driving. To my mind the impact for the future of the automotive industry are tremendous as the list of advantages are endless. For example, traffic death could be reduced by around 90% or 60% less carbon emissions due to reasons as decreased traffic congestions and increased efficiency of fuel use (Goldin, 2019). Last but not least, the interconnectivity between cars and/ or with traffic infrastructure could create increased revenues, reduced costs, boosted safety and create value opportunities of around 750$ billion until the year 2030 (Bertoncello, Husain and Möller, 2018). Furthermore, advantages are seen in time-saving and increased productivity as accident alerts, traffic conditions and live route optimisation including shorter routes are available (Fernandez, n.d.). Additionally, interconnected cars increase the safety standard as they are able to communicate with road infrastructure or other cars. Therefore, there are forecasts which predict that there will be 380 million connected cars by 2021 and a new ecosystem in the automotive industry. Wait … a new ecosystem?

Of course, electrification, autonomous driving and interconnectivity are shaping the car industry as just a few technologies ever did before. But are those the most impactful changes to the automotive industry? To my mind those technologies are “only” the enhancers for something that is bigger than those technologies – a new ecosystem in the automotive industry which is boosted by interconnection, automation, electrification and smart algorithms. It´s not about selling cars anymore, but rather about cooperating with new partners in order to deliver the best, most convenient and sustainable mobility service for a new generation of high demanding customers. What are your thoughts – are those really the most important technologies at the moment? And are the technologies just the enhancers for the new ecosystem or is the new ecosystem just an overrated buzzword?

References:

Bannon, E. (2016). E-vehicles to be 35% of sales by 2040 thanks to falling battery prices | Transport & Environment. [online] Transportenvironment.org. Available at: https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/e-vehicles-be-35-sales-2040-thanks-falling-battery-prices [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Bertoncello, M., Husain, A. and Möller, T. (2018). Setting the framework for car connectivity and user experience. [online] McKinsey & Company. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/setting-the-framework-for-car-connectivity-and-user-experience [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Fernandez, T. (n.d.). 6 Key Benefits of Adopting Connected Car Technology | Autotrip. [online] Autotrip. Available at: https://autotrip.com/connected-car-technology-benefits/ [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Goldin, P. (2018). 10 Advantages of Autonomous Vehicles | ITSdigest. [online] Itsdigest.com. Available at: https://www.itsdigest.com/10-advantages-autonomous-vehicles [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

IEA (2019). Global EV Outlook 2019. [online] Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/reports/globalevoutlook2019/ [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Kane, M. (2019). Plug-In Electric Car Sales Visualized From 2011 to 2015. [online] InsideEVs. Available at: https://insideevs.com/news/329358/plug-in-electric-car-sales-visualized-from-2011-to-2015/ [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

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