[Homework Assignment] Prediction Markets – they can do anything! .. right?

31

October

2013

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When browsing for specific examples of the usage of prediction markets, I came across a bazillion cases of them being used in political campaigns, or on the Hollywood Stock Exchange and it just wasn’t “doing it” for me. I knew that someone out there had to have used prediction markets for something interesting or unexpected. Well, after tireless search I found a controversial case and a cool medical case.

Firstly – by now we probably all know who Al Gore is. The guy with the “global warming” warnings. Whether you agree with him or not is your business, but researchers have decided to place a bet between Gore and Armstrong (one of the authors, who opposes Gore’s idea) that will span over 10 years, annually doing climate evaluations, and after a decade they will reveal the final results. Using HubDub, an independent prediction market, and using it openly for anyone to use, the early results from 2009 predict that so far, Armstrong will win.

I found this case interesting since it’s a work in progress, and as a conspiracy theory nut myself, I can’t wait to see the results. When I’m 28 years old. Still worth it!

Then my second case is far more serious in nature, and way cooler I believe. In this one, prediction markets are use to predict when flu outbreaks will take place. Using IEM, traders with healthcare professional background and past history of outbreaks for benchmarking, the researchers were able to outperform past findings with three to four weeks, and to me that’s amazing.

While the first paper has some methodological issues while the second one is much stronger but still has a few dents in its strategy, both are the type of prediction markets I want to see more of. It’s safe to say I got hooked on the idea of prediction markets because of this assignment. It seems so simple and it gives such interesting results.

Assignment:

[355870, Antoan Markov] Homework Assignment – Prediction Markets

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WE HAVE THE POWAH! [The case of the “Retake Mass Effect” movement]

29

October

2013

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If there is one group of people that content creators should avoid pissing off – it’s gamers. Gamers spend countless hours and piles of money on their favorite franchises, and nowadays gaming is no longer thought of as child’s play. The average age of the gamer these days is 35 years old, as compared to the 80’s when it was 12 to 14. Moreover, the video game industry is generation billions of dollars every year, rivaling the TV and even movie industry.

So, when you’re a game developer and you have a pack of loyal fans, the last thing you want is to rip their heart out and make them very angry. What happens when you do? Well, allow me to explain.

One of the top game developers out there – BioWare – has always been known for story driven games. Their crown jewel would be the Mass Effect series. What do I mean by story driven? Well, if you imagine a game as a place where you just jump and shoot stuff, you’re doing it wrong. With Mass Effect, BioWare was able to create a Hollywood worthy plot, mix it with amazing visuals, splendid voice acting and most of all – the ability to allow the player to actually have an impact on the game world through his decisions.

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You heard me right. A video game character’s decisions have consequences. And they really do!

The basic synopsis of the story is that we’re way off into the distant future. Alien species are flying all over the galaxy and you happen to be the badass Commander Shepard.

Aside from chasing away baddies who want to harm the Earth, you have to deal with The Reapers. Mechanical species aimed at erasing every organic life form every now and then to “restore the balance”. Suffice to say, you don’t feel like dying so you have to find a way to whoop their butts.

Well, after three games and five years of building relationships with your crew, seeing how your decisions lead to some of your crews’ deaths, the deaths of others, or the saving of entire species, by Mass Effect 3, the game has become you. It is your world which you created. And as it is with every trilogy – it has to end sometime. However, as a fan, you expect it to end gloriously. You expect a hero’s ending.

In Mass Effect 3’s case though, you expect an ending that is built for you. Normally these games allow you a multitude of endings so your game ends depending on how well you played. If you played well, you get the good endings and if you didn’t lots of planets and people and species may die because of you.

But … that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite did. The ending of Mass Effect 3 and the series was abysmal, according to fans. They were rushed into three different endings that were actually the same except for minor details. The ending did not resolve a conflict, it essentially murdered everyone and didn’t make sense.

So what do gamers do in this case? Head off to social media, create polls, write blogs, start Facebook groups, Instagram pages, Kickstarter Campaigns to hire devs to make a new ending, flood BioWare’s forums, Tweet and Re-Tweet.

Well, after an insane barrage of internet hate, whining and demands, for the first time in gaming history the customer has been able to force the developer to bend out of shape and redesign the ending into something better. Following months of extreme social media presence of this “issue”, BioWare released a DLC (Downloadable Content) for free, adjusting the ending to better fit the fans’ needs. Now your choices DO matter and while it wasn’t ideal, fans were satisfied.

This case is interesting for a number of reasons. One, as I said already, the consumer forced the developer to do something. Normally, that doesn’t happen. If a consumer is unsatisfied with the product they can just keep being mopey and shut up. However, this didn’t happen here. Why? Social media, my friends. With so much fuss and noise, the consumer turned this into a PR nightmare for BioWare. Since gamers run wild on the Internet, we all heard about it and we damn sure wouldn’t have bought a BioWare game following this disappointment. It’s amazing! They had to do it!

And secondly, what does this mean for the entertainment industry in general? If the consumers showed that they can shove anyone into PR hell at will, what if the next thing we don’t like is a movie? Or a song? Will directors change the ending of a movie? Will song writers and singers change a song? How would they deal with this?

What do you fine fellows think?

References:

https://www.facebook.com/DemandABetterEndingToMassEffect3

http://retakemasseffect.tumblr.com/

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-03-23-retake-mass-effect-3-protest-claims-victory-after-bioware-vows-to-address-controversial-ending

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A Social Media powered car?

27

October

2013

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It’s official. I’ve seen it all! I can die happy now.

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Apparently, teenagers these days don’t have enough entertaining tasks to perform, so they decided to build a vehicle that runs on social media shares, likes and mentions. Human creativity never ceases to amaze me. I still can’t decide if all the whacky inventors out there are pure geniuses or incredibly bored individuals. Either way, paint me fascinated.

Now, I’m no engineer. I’ve never been behind the steering wheel and I don’t have the slightest clue how a car works, but from my limited understanding, these teens made it so a battery is hooked to the car, which is also hooked to a tablet. Every time someone “likes” their Minddrive organization’s Facebook page, shares something on Twitter or Facebook or simply mentions it, it sends a signal with slowly charges the car’s battery allowing it to run for a little while. The plan being to make it from point A to point B by being powered by shares and likes, without crashing into a tree.

I knew social media had a huge impact on our daily lives, but this is beyond insane. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s awesome, but I still don’t have my damn flying cars and my jetpack. I shall demand them in every single blog I make, regardless of how many Facebook powered vehicles these bright students create.

Granted, their project is nothing revolutionary. It’s simply an electric car that gets charged the same old way, just slower and on cue. However, the creativity behind the idea is almost as brilliant as social media itself. If anything, it shows us that in today’s modern age, young people’s minds are working like clockwork, twenty-four-seven, always coming up with new ideas and helping us all evolve, at least mentally. And all of this is triggered by social media. The only question is: what’s next?

It better be flying cars and jet packs.

 

Sources: 

http://mashable.com/2013/06/06/social-media-powered/

http://minddrive.org/

 

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Breaking News: Some famous person unfollowed another famous person. Call the militia!

24

October

2013

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You know, when I imagined my future when I was 12, I was picturing flying cars and jet packs, not “Tweet” this and “Like” that. I certainly didn’t think I’d be studying it intensely. I thought my life would be more like that of The Jetsons.

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But … man oh man has the world has changed in just five or six short years.  The first iPhone is an ancient fossil at this point (2007), writers’ strike against Hollywood studios has left all of us Europeans not giving a hot damn about it (2009), but apparently it was a big whoop in the US of A, and Justin Bieber has finally hit puberty at the age of 19. Too many changes, way too fast!

Aside from your general pop culture shifts in trends, the world has experienced some other adjustments. A few years back I distinctly remember how people with a Facebook account were sometimes mocked for having it. Of course, this is due to MySpace’s popularity and the fact that you could add an infinite amount of junk to your profile in order to make yourself stand out from the rest of your pre-pubescent peers. The argument was that Facebook looked boring, you couldn’t customize every single detail of your profile page, you couldn’t add all the horrible songs you like and most of all you pretty much had to use your real name, like a grown up, instead of something as classy as “SexyBuns26”.

Well, fast forward to 2013, MySpace is as dead as a dodo and they’re desperately trying to cling to whatever relevancy they have left in order to avoid pulling the plug on the whole damn thing. Long story short – Facebook to MySpace is like Ali to Foreman, Luke Skywalker to Darth Vader, Kryptonite to Superman, Math to me.

In fact, things have changed so much that now it makes people scratch their heads when someone says they don’t have a Facebook account. The world has done a 180, then went home, updated its status and all the other planets “Liked” it. Insane! Usually individuals without a Facebook page have their own reasons which make perfect sense, but it doesn’t stop the rest of the world from thinking that this person has killed somebody recently and that’s why they went into hiding. Before you do anything, don’t report them to the police! They’re sane and they don’t like ads shoved in their faces and private information shared all over the web.

Either way, Facebook has become a ginormous part of our lives that we can’t shake off. However, as mighty as Mark Zuckerberg’s spawn has become, Twitter seems to have an effect on pop culture that Facebook doesn’t.

Remember the last few paragraphs? You know, how things have changed, how some social media were considered passe and odd but now they’re overpopulated with users? Good job! You didn’t fall asleep!

yet.

Well, friend, the same applies to Twitter. Twitter blew up in the last few years. People love, love, love sharing their boring lifestyles in 140 characters, and it’s the easiest way for a C-list celebrity to promote their Z-list movie without having to pay a dime. Brilliant!

However, in order to truly see Twitter’s power nowadays, you have to look at the backlash Twitter related cases have on the real world. Nobody bats an eye when your roommate tweets that he just tried to light his own farts because he’s bored, but when Miley Cyrus stops following her ex-fiance – everybody goes ape. Bloggers, YouTubers, TMZ (as per usual) act like this came out of nowhere. Nevermind that officially the two have not been seen in the same zip code in half a year, never wearing their engagement rings, it is not official to the world unless they unfollow themselves on Twitter. And when they do? Duck and cover.

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The same applies to Jonas Brothers breaking up (I’ll surely miss that band, said no sane person ever), or any other heart wrenching celebrity break up.

So things have changed. An awful lot. At least for modern pop culture.

Friends, the day a single click on some social media website’s “Unfollow” button makes hundreds of Internet enthusiasts to blog, vlog, schlog and schmog about it, is the day we truly have to admit that social media is a monster that the world has never had to deal with before, and we’re only getting started.

Social media has grown so much that unfollowing, unsubcribing or unfriending is the equivalent of walking up to someone and slapping them in front of their mom, and is – sometimes – national news. I’m not sure if that scares or entertains me. Maybe both.

One thing’s for sure though – I’m still waiting for my flying car and my jet pack!

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