The rise and fail of 3D printing.

21

September

2016

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I have personally never held a 3D printed object or even attempted to translate my non-existing creativity into 3D printing. When I started doing research for this blog, I assumed, I was tech savvy enough to go to an appliance store, splash out on a 3D printer, and have my first 3D printed watch before midnight (automatic preferably). After this research, I am confident that I am not a 3D-prosumer and that I will not even have printed a potato by the end of the week.

Despite numerous reports and extensive news coverage, the past years, the much anticipated 3D printing disruption revolution has yet to take off. Many start-ups have gone bankrupt due to the slow pace this technology is moving in the consumer market. It is important to start with segmenting the market into consumer, prosumer and professional. A prosumer is a professional consumer whom, related to this blog post, is actually able to successfully print medium complex objects with a low cost commercial printer.

For a professional market such as engineering; rapid prototyping has seen a lot of success with 3d printing1, even the international space station has a printer on board. The same applies for any industry that wants a quick 3D designed object before entering production. A search on YouTube will result in videos of amazing printed objects. From houses, pizzas to surgical implants. Using materials ranging from concrete, resigns to chocolate2. Most of these objects are printed on industrial 3D printers, operated by experts, and are not affordable for normal consumers.

There are commercially off the shelf consumer 3D printers. However, there is a lot more to 3D printing than simply clicking the print button. Prosumers or printing hobbyist are willing to invest resources into fixing, maintaining physical and digital flaws, that low-end printers have. For the regular consumer it does not live up to the promise.

Coolblue offers a 3D printer assortment ranging from 499 up to 2.999 euro. Then, you still have to add the cost of the material and the cost of the object design you want to print.  Plus, the time it will consume to set up the printing process and the time it will take to study how these processes actually work.

As a newbie to this segment, I have no idea if I should buy Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene, Polyethylene Terephthalate or simply Polyamide. These are all coils of different filament ranging from 30 to 60 euro a cartridge. That is 600 to 750grams of building material. I am confident that is not even a set of screwdrivers after wasting material in trial and error print sessions. Currently, 3D printing has no absolute or even comparative advantage over low cost, high quality simple consumer products (injection molding).

Luckily, there are numerous sites with freeware and free designs. Thingiverse is one of them and they state that they have 622,520+ designs. Their range of newly uploaded designs is hard to describe; there are toys, tools and a number of mechanical parts used in 3D printers. There are also quite some puzzling designs, from which I cannot infer what they actually are3. Grabcat4 tailores to professional engineering, a hub for digital manufacturing, and promises prints straight from Cad without file conversion. A common problem among other software related issues.

Printer-makers advertise new machines that are faster, use different new technologies, but do not advertise failure rate. One manufacturer is even offering a modular printer that allows you to swap components for future innovations. Seems like work in process rather than a sturdy long lasting device. All marketing videos have 1 thing in common, they fast forward to the final perfect object. Printing an object can take many hours or even days, another feature printer-makers do not advertise. During that time, you have to keep an eye on your printer because the failure rate is actually problematically high on quite a few commercial models. It can result in a half-finished product, due to connectivity issues, but also a big mesh of spaghetti covering your expensive printer with molten plastic.

I wanted to explain some of the technical complications related to the printing process. It escalated from duct-taping your printing plate to extrusion multiplier settings5. I think it is better to read the following post “3D printers are never going to be a real thing6” on Mashable; six failed attempts at a simple object.

If you have abundant time, finances and are willing to become an expert, you can try it as a prosumer. Unless previously addressed issues will not significantly improve, I believe there cannot be a mass consumer market in the near future.

 

 

1              http://www.pwc.com/us/en/technology-forecast/2014/issue2/features/future-3d-     printing.html

2              http://www.shapeways.com/materials

3              http://www.thingiverse.com/newest/page:1

4              https://grabcad.com/

5              https://all3dp.com/common-3d-printing-problems-and-their-solutions/#Over-Extrusion

6              http://mashable.com/2016/07/23/3d-printed-failure/#NFxSVSN8CGqm

Coverpicture: http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/

 

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Virtual Reality: Industry disruption or another evolutionary step in a 100-year-old growth process.

21

September

2016

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A casual search about the history of virtual reality reveals that it has been around for almost a hundred years. VR hardware has not seen a six order of magnitude that computers have. However, the development from a 1930s flight simulator1 similar to the size of a cockpit to a mainstream headset that provides an immersive experience is of a certain order of magnitude. Most of the gains have been made in the past 20 years. Most recently, accelerated by the gaming industry.

The acquisition of oculus rift by Facebook for 2 billion USD showed the world that VR is coming in ways never experienced before. Is this the development stage that will break through for the masses or another step in a long line of gimmicks?

A number of headsets will be competing in this potential disruptive sector. A distinction will have to be made in phone assisted VR, computer backed VR systems and console supported VR. Each compete on price, quality and compatibility. A low range phone assisted system cannot compete with a high end computer backed system on quality. On the contrary it outperforms on price significantly. After all you also need a high end pc to back up the VR system. The console industry will also compete in the gaming sector.

According to PWC2 the video game industry will be driving virtual reality sales up from 2017-2018, with significant revenues after this period due to the development time of content-based business models. A comprehensive report by www.newzoo.com, a non-conventional source, forecasts that the gaming industry over all available medium will be more than US $100 Billion a year3, from 2017 onwards. Mc Kinsey projects that Total global media spending will rise from US $1.6 trillion in 2014 to US $2.1 trillion in 20193. The average age of gamers is well into adulthood4. This target market has enough disposable income to afford high end systems.

I wonder how many of you have already experienced immersive VR, as mainstream availability is still limited. With my new Samsung phone, I got the gear VR as a present. On the first day I floated around in the ocean watching dolphins. Watched the earth from the international Space Station and scared some friends with a rollercoaster ride. Despite the pixelated vision the experience is real enough to grab onto your chair when you are exposed to a thrill seeking virtual reality environment. However, after that novelty period it has been on a shelve untouched.

Disruption might be fuelled by the before mentioned, other industries are expected to see significant changes due to this technology and perhaps even disruption.

A potential live saving application would be in healthcare. Using specialized handheld surgical instruments that connect to a simulation and even provide touch feedback, it is possible to simulate surgeries and reducing the need to practice on animals and humans. It takes between 50 and 100 patients for a surgeon to master a procedure. VR eliminates the exposure of potential harm to patients6. Do you want to be the first patient a surgeon has ever operated on?

A number of military applications are being used and developed. For example; dismounted soldier simulation, real combat training in a virtual world.

Education and training can be enhanced by offering experiences that are not available otherwise. Increasing quality of education and reducing costs of trainings. It is possible to take the class for an educational fieldtrip at the other side of the planet. The early phases of educational VR are centred on the hard sciences — biology, anatomy, geology and astronomy — as the curricular focus and learning opportunities are notably enriched through interaction with dimensional objects, animals and environments7.

Real estate and the holiday industry will also be impacted. Rather than picking an island based on reviews and photos for your summer holiday you can put on a headset and decide for yourself if this is your perfect getaway. Rather than buying a house based on a scale model it is possible to “walk” through your yet to be build home. If you do not have the time to do numerous viewings before finding a suitable apartment, you can do it from anywhere at any time that you see fit.

Engineering has long used drafting software for three dimensional objects. VR takes it a leap further and enables engineers to visualize and test projects in a safe environment. While making changes before the physical project commences.

These are just a few examples of how VR can transform and disrupts industries. Despite numerous reports the past years, the much anticipated 3d printing revolution has yet to conquer mass markets. Are mainstream VR expectations overstated in the short term? Mark Zuckerberg expects that it will be at least 10 years for VR to hit mass markets8? Looking at my headset on the shelf I must agree.

 

 

 

1              http://www.visualcapitalist.com/evolution-virtual-reality/

2              http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/entertainment-media/outlook/segment-insights/video-games.html

3              https://newzoo.com/insights/articles/global-games-market-reaches-99-6-billion-2016-mobile-generating-37/

4              http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/29/gaming-advocacy-group-the-average-gamer-is-31-and-most-play-on-a-console/

5              Global Media Report 2015 – McKinsey & Company

6              http://www.reuters.com/video/2011/08/02/virtual-reality-helps-ready-surgeons-for?     videoId=217747418

7              https://techcrunch.com/2016/01/23/when-virtual-reality-meets-education/

8              http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-interview-with-axel-springer-ceo-mathias-doepfner-2016-2?op=1

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