Are we over exaggerating AI?

22

October

2017

No ratings yet.

People nowadays love to discuss the endless possibilities offered to us by artificial intelligence (AI) or the moral and ethical dilemmas it presents us with. Once seen as simply an interesting topic for science fiction movies (e.g. Blade Runner, Ex Machina), recent developments in AI have led to the belief that superintelligence may not be as far away as we thought. In an article by the Future of Life Institute (a research and outreach organization working to ‘mitigate existential risks facing humanity’), it is stated that most AI researchers at the AI Safety conference in Puerto Rico in 2015 are convinced that general AI – the kind that can learn to outperform humans at every cognitive task – can be achieved before 2060 (Future of Life Institute, 2017). Essentially, the conflicting views and the ever-present uncertainty indicate that we never really know what AI will become.

 

A recent article published by the MIT Technology Review offers an interesting take on the subject of AI. Popular belief is that the intelligence is developing so quickly that ‘robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 or 20 years’ (Brooks, 2017). The author, Rodney Brooks, believes such claims are absolutely ludicrous. He sees the hysteria surrounding artificial intelligence as grossly exaggerated. His article, The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions, instead outlines what negative influence the predictions and discussions around AI could have on our future. He brings into view the following points:

 

  1. Overestimating and underestimating

 

Brooks introduces Amara’s Law, which states, “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run, and underestimate the effect in the long run” (Brooks, 2017). Big promises of huge breakthroughs that fail to deliver in the desired timeframe lead to more hysteria over AI. In the long run, we often say that general AI is centuries away. However, this could be an underestimation, as strides are being made towards AI regardless of the failure of short-term goals. Brooks uses the next points to describe this worry further.

 

  1. Imagining magic

 

The author states that there is a certain problem with the technology we imagine. That is, if it is too far away from what we understand today, then we are unsure of limitations. People often see future technology as being too ‘magical’. Of course, as Brooks explains, nothing in the universe is without limit. Certain developments may be very far away, but that does not mean that we will not achieve them. In imagining AI as something that omniscient and powerful beyond comprehension, we simply add to the exaggerated claims of AI’s potential.

 

  1. Performance versus competence

 

Today’s AI systems are still very narrow. While we often expect them to be as competent as humans in understanding context, they are not.

 

  1. Suitcase words

 

Suitcase words are words that carry a variety of meanings. When we describe AI systems as having a ‘learning’ capability, the description can signify different experiences. Brooks uses the example that learning to write code is significantly different to learning how to navigate a city, or that learning the tune of a song is different to learning to eat with chopsticks.

 

The suitcase words are leading people to believe that AI systems are able to absorb knowledge as humans do. It warps our understanding of the state of AI, and can make for (currently) unrealistic expectation.

 

  1. Exponentials

 

Moore’s Law suggests that computers grow exponentially ‘on a clockwork-like schedule’ (Brooks, 2017). It indicates that microchip performance would double every year. We have come to expect the same from AI systems. Due to deep learning success (which took 30 years), people believe the increases in AI system performance will continue to increase exponentially. However, deep learning was an isolated event, so there is no evidence to show that we should expect these developments.

 

  1. Hollywood scenarios

 

People love to imagine AI systems terrorizing humankind as in sci-fi movies. Superintelligence, however, will not suddenly come to attack. Machine development is an iterative process that will slowly evolve over time.

 

  1. Speed of deployment

 

The marginal cost of deploying a new set of code is next to zero, which is why software developments are so rapid. This is not, however, applicable to hardware, which requires significant capital investments. For this reason, Brooks states that the hardware aspect of AI will take far longer than we expect to be embedded in daily life.

 

Rodney Brooks raises interesting arguments against the popular idea that we should be wary or afraid of AI developments. It brings to light reasons to be skeptical of the many statistics regarding the disappearance of jobs or the substitution of daily processes. Personally, I lean towards siding with Brooks. I am confident that AI will become an integral part of our lives, but I doubt that it will happen at the speed that people expect and to the extent that people expect so quickly.

 

So, what do you think? Do you agree with Rodney Brooks that the hysteria surrounding AI is severely over exaggerated, or do you believe AI systems will evolve to the point of trying to kill us in the near future?

 

 

References:

 

Brooks, R. (2017). The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions. [online] MIT Technology Review. Available at: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609048/the-seven-deadly-sins-of-ai-predictions/ [Accessed 22 Oct. 2017].

Future of Life Institute. (2017). Benefits & Risks of Artificial Intelligence. [online] Available at: https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/ [Accessed 22 Oct. 2017].

Please rate this

Urbanization: A Thing of the Past?

14

October

2017

5/5 (1)

Current discussions about the environments we live in and the technology that spurs such changes relate mostly to the urbanization and immense growth of our cities. Reasons are simple; cities offer increased job opportunities, unparalleled access to goods and services, and a social life that is nearly unimaginable in a rural setting. While I wholeheartedly agree that city living brings many advantages with it and simplifies life, I recently came across a TED talk that introduced a completely different standpoint. The talk was given by Julio Gil, an Industrial Engineering Manager in the Innovation and Advanced Technology Group at UPS.

Gil begins his TED talk by stating a number of facts or predictions. For example, he introduces the prediction that 66% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2050 (currently over 50% already). He mentions that problems such as inequality, congestion, and crime will only worsen if we do not plan for the increased density. While many planners are preparing for these changes, Gil proposes that he believes urbanization will soon ‘reach the end of its cycle’. He justifies this by providing examples to illustrate that socioeconomic trends have changed often throughout history (i.e. people roamed the land until they settled in farms, and farmed until the industrial revolution). The change in socioeconomic trends, as Gil believes, is a direct result of technical innovation.

So, how does Julio Gil expect the shift from city life to the countryside to happen? The TED talk breaks down the three aforementioned reasons/advantages for city life, explaining why the benefits are also achievable from the countryside:

  1. More jobs and career opportunities:

A study by Global Workplace Analytics states that more than 80% of the US workforce would like to work from home. If 50% of those workers would telework, over $500bn would be saved. It could also reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons per year, which is the same as removing 10 million cars off the streets for one year. Two technologies solve the issue of the isolating, uncomfortable experience of teleworking:

  • Augmented reality: This technology allows people to take their office with them; it only requires a wearable computer and a pair of smart glasses.
  • Telepresence robots: Currently, telepresence robots are like ‘tablets on sticks’. In the near future, however, augmented reality will be combined with these robots to produce lifelike holograms.
  1. Access to services and goods:

Most, if not all, access to services and goods can be done online nowadays. The global market for e-commerce is expected to reach $2.38bn by the end of 2017, according to eMarketer. However, city density is great for deliveries (low costs and travel distances). A truck traveling to the countryside is cost and time-intensive. However, Gil proposes that a ‘vehicle carrying a squadron of drones’ will make e-commerce services to the countryside more affordable and efficient in the future. The truck will perform some deliveries, while drones do the rest (flying back and forth) as the truck moves.

  1. Rich social life

People are already socializing (chatting, gossiping, flirting, etc.) online from the comfort of their own homes. Through social media, we are highly connected with friends around us, although of course not entirely. Gil understands that people still require human contact, but argues that densely populated cities are not great environments for this. He states, ‘As social groups become smaller, they grow stronger.’ Furthermore, as more people move to the countryside, goods and services businesses in rural areas will thrive.

Although skeptics (including myself) may claim that the changes in urbanization are still many years away, Gil has proven that although not yet fully developed, the technology systems are very close to being complete. Gil himself lives in a small village, and can attest to the fact that it improves quality of living significantly, while still allowing him to work at UPS.

Is teleworking really the future of office life? Will drones be delivering products to our doorsteps? Do you think the future of technology will draw more people to cities or allow them to move away from them? The thoughts presented by Julio Gil are an interesting take on the continuous development of technology. Let me know in the comments what your views are, and please watch the TED talk by clicking on the link below!

References

TED Conferences (2017). Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere. Available at: https://www.ted.com/talks/julio_gil_future_tech_will_give_you_the_benefits_of_city_life_anywhere [Accessed 14 Oct. 2017].

Please rate this

Technology of the Week – Online Food Ordering Platforms in the Restaurant and Dining Industry

22

September

2017

No ratings yet.

In the past, ordering food for delivery meant contacting your local pizza parlor and placing an order by phone. Options were limited, and consumers had to go out to eat if their desired restaurant did not deliver. While this method of ordering is still by far the most common (90% market share), today’s increased smartphone penetration and recent app developments have resulted in a significant disruption of the restaurant and dining industry.

The IT systems that have given rise to the aforementioned disruption are food delivery platforms, which have allowed for the immense expansion of the food delivery industry. The market for food delivery currently stands at €83 billion, which is 1% of the total food market and 4% of food sold through restaurants (Hirschberg et al., 2016). The four major players in the industry are publicly traded companies Just Eat, GrubHub, Delivery Hero, and Takeaway.com.

Online food delivery platforms are revolutionizing the restaurant/dining industry by offering consumers increased convenience and choice. Through an app or website, customers are presented with extensive food options, all of which can be ordered and paid for within minutes.

Delivery platforms can be divided into two business models, namely the aggregators and new delivery platforms. Aggregator platforms show customers food offerings, prices, reviews, and more. Once customers order their meals, the restaurants handle the deliveries and aggregators earn a margin of every order, paid by the restaurant. Aggregators maintain a traditional business model, solely acting as a middleman to provide consumers with an overview of meal choices.

New delivery platforms, which emerged in 2013, are different from aggregators in that they also provide delivery logistics. This means that consumers are able to order from restaurants that did not deliver previously. This causes the long tail phenomenon, meaning consumers with various tastes are accommodated through the platform (Brynjolfsson & Smith, 2006). Restaurants that work with New Delivery platforms are typically high-end. These platforms allow for a number of advantages for various parties:
1. Consumers are offered a substitution for fine dining or cooking at home
2. The online delivery industry is expanded, rather than only increasing competition
3. Restaurants can increase income from new customers and can increase kitchen productivity

Applying the disruptive dynamics that internet platforms cause on Porter’s Five Forces, entry barriers are lower, the threat of substitutes rises, bargaining power of consumers becomes higher, and bargaining power of suppliers decreases, while rivalry among competitors increases (Porter, 2001).

The room for growth in the industry is undeniable. Prior to their IPOs in 2014, major players GrubHub and Just Eat raised total funding of less than €100 million, while Delivery Hero has €2.7 billion valuation versus €1.2 billion funding (estimated valuation to funding for Deliveroo is €1 billion vs. €400 million). With an estimated market growth of 3.5% per year and these increasingly higher valuations, food delivery platforms will likely see continuous growth in the future.

Group 18

Sources:

Brynjolfsson, E., Hu, Y., and Smith, M.D. 2006. From Niches to Riches: Anatomy of the Long Tail. Sloan Management Review 47(4) 67-71.

Porter, M.E. 2001. Strategy and the Internet. Harvard Business Review 79(3) 62-79.

Hirschberg C., Rajko A., Schumacher T., Wrulich M. 2016. The changing market for food delivery. [online] McKinsey & Company available at http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/the-changing-market-for-food-delivery

Please rate this