Max den Hoed

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The rounds of releases of consoles has always been a war between two producers: Microsoft and Sony. Ever since the introduction of the respective Xbox and PlayStation consoles the producers have been in a war of the game savvy mass-consumer. This led to waves of innovations to the devices and corresponding platforms. With the introduction of the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 in 2010, users were able to wiressly control their games through wireless controllers. This was groundbreaking at the time.

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In the above depicted graphs can be seen that sales of Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 equalled each other due to similar functionalities. What is the reason for the shift in sales towards the Playstation console in the 8th generation? What can be learned by this shift in order to leverage this to the advantage of the producers? With the next generation of consoles upcoming in 2020, this question is the a question of key significance.

The disruption that caused Sony to take the lead in sales in favour of Microsoft in the 7th generation next gen consoles wasn’t a disruption at all. Sony simply focused on its core market offering, offering a game console that was more powerful than the Xbox one while retailing at a lower price. Xbox tried to offer all aspects of an entertainment center with no unifying vision. This resulted in a painful process of diminshing sales for Microsoft.

How will Xbox cope with potential new features that are assembled on the next generation consoles? What will both Sony’s and Microsofts’ strategy be?

A new patent release indicated that Sony will use VR as an asset to appeal to the masses. The VR feature that Sony has patented shows an array of features that further differentiates Sony on the basis of pure gaming power. Microsoft has yet to announce any feature regarding VR, naming their new project “Scarlett”. With new players like Google (Stadia) and Apple (Arcade) looking to dominate the market for casual players that are also looking for an entertainment system, Microsoft has to find a new product offering in order to prevent the Xbox becoming obsolete.

Based on these findings, Sony will dominate Microsoft once again. Sony has a strong position in the market in which it dominates the offering based on pure gaming power. If Microsoft is unable to differentiate itself on different aspects, there is no turning back and the results will be disastrous. All alarm bells should be ringing and Microsoft should act fast to not see the Xbox die.

Sources

https://www.polygon.com/2017/12/8/16751740/playstation-vs-xbox

https://www.theguardian.com/games/2019/oct/09/playstation-5-v-xbox-scarlett-the-next-console-war-begins-in-2020

PS5 Release Date Countdown – Holiday 2020 PS5 Launch Date

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News reports about autonomous vehicles are a hot topic. From the massive investments from legacy companies in the car industry to its deadly accidents, media coverage is massive. And it is no wonder: an infrastructure constituted of autonomous vehicles would not only completely disrupt the car industry, but our entire economy and idea of time management as a whole. But how feasible is having an autonomous machine transporting you within ten years?

Firstly, the differing levels of Autonomous Driving must be assessed. According to Gartner’s hype cycle, it is not. Both “Autonomous Driving Level 4” and “Autonomous Driving Level 5” are indicated by white dots. Autonomous Driving Level 4 is what is meant by a high level of automation (SAE, 2013). Level 5 is regarded as full automation (SAE, 2013). This indicates that according to the 2019’s Gartner Hype Cycle we won’t see either a high automation or full automated vehicles within ten years. This directs not only to human passengers but also transporting medical supplies, food delivery and more.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2019 (source: https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2019/)

According to court documents of Uber obtained in the beginning of 2019, Uber thought it would be operating 75000 autonomous vehicles on the roads in 2019 and exploiting driverless taxi services by 2022. Uber at the time, 2016, was investing 20 million dollars a month to develop self-driving technologies. According to Reuters, Uber even at times spent close to 200 million dollars per quarter on its self-driving unit. A specific objective which was communicated by John Bares, at the time in charge of Uber’s autonomous vehicles, was to be able to forgo human safety drivers by 2020. Uber, in cooperation with Volvo, has released a third generation version of its self-driving car, which is autonomous at the factory level. It will start testing on public roads in 2020. It is also expected to launch an Uber air service. Testing starts in 2020 and Uber is looking to launch some version of an air taxi service in 2023.

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Uber’s air taxi service expected to launch in 2023. (source: https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/11/18661129/uber-air-taxi-cabin-interior-elevate-helicopter)

While Gartner’s Hype Cycle is indicating that it may take over ten years before we see a full adoption of autonomous vehicles, Uber is proving that it may be sooner than we think. Essential partnerships with a huge car manufacturer, enough capital to spend and the testing of an air taxi service in American cities. With the rapid development of technology and the unforeseeable benefits that autonomous vehicles bring, I expect the first fully autonomous services to be offered by 2023. Especially because Uber’s legal team is highly specialized in loopholes in regulation (UberPOP), with the right partnerships and technology this is certainly feasible. In my opinion, once the autonomous technology is proven to have surpassed the human error threshold, regulation should open up and facilitate technology instead of working against it. It may be a while before customers have full availability of their own personal autonomous vehicle, especially regarding large scale infrastructure adaptations. When taxi services only are offered, such large scale adaptations are not needed because the gross of the traffic will still be non-autonomous. If regulation starts cooperating with technology instead of resisting it then before you know, you will be able to book an autonomous machine transporting from A to B. Most certainly within ten years.

Schoettle, B., & Sivak, M. (2014). A survey of public opinion about autonomous and self-driving vehicles in the US, the UK, and Australia. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute.

Smith, B. W. (2013b). SAE levels of driving automation. <http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/sae-levels-driving-automation>.

Uber’s court documents: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5765440-2275-4-Uber-Bratic-Report-EXCELLENT.html

https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/12/18662626/uber-volvo-self-driving-car-safety-autonomous-factory-level

https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/08/uber-expects-a-long-wait-before-self-driving-cars-dominate/

https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/12/ubers-self-driving-car-unit-was-burning-20-million-a-month/

https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/11/18661129/uber-air-taxi-cabin-interior-elevate-helicopter