Michiel Steendam

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Stephen Hawking predicted only two years ago that the pace of the development of full artificial intelligence (AI) could be a serious threat for humankind, which eventually spell the end of the human race (Cellan-Jones, 2014). Also Elon Musk stated that AI is our biggest existential threat (Cellan-Jones, 2014). A rather frightening thought which could easily cause a world-wide panic attack with devastating consequences, if true. The ‘if-true’ combination is quite important in this, because even-though professor Hawking and mister Musk are well-respected names in the scene with access to incredible amounts of data and knowledge and a more that capable vision related to this subject to predict the future, they do not actually know the future. With these verdict, it seems that the question becomes when robots take over humankind, not if. Perhaps it easier to convince people to be frightened of the unknown than to embrace it, particularly if you are well known, but since the future equals speculation, let me give it a try.

First of all, although they might be key figures in the scientific and technological industry, having made great accomplishments and influencing many people around the world, there are more opinions related to this topic. Opinions that are not as destructive, yet more close in time and thus more concrete and realistic. Because let’s be honest, discussing the end of the existence of humankind seems the least to say intangible. A more positive perspective is from Sabine Hauert, roboticist at Bristol University, who states that AI will open up whole new worlds to explore and change the way we uncover the oceans and space (Del Prado, 2015). That doesn’t seem too bad right? Another great application of AI is in the healthcare industry, for example as assistants of humans. Yoky Matsuoka, former Vice President of Technology at Nest, gives the example that robotic limbs can not only complement the human body, but also enhance it, like an efficient partnership (Del Prado, 2015).

Both previously mentioned visions display the positive view towards AI. But only showing contradicting views does not seal the deal, let’s also look at rooted fear of AI and attack that. This fear consists of robots or other machines having AI that might ruin the world, but this actually assumes that it is possible at all for that type of AI to exist. Superintelligence is the term Paul Ford (2015) uses for it, and he concludes that, as for now, there is still nothing that approaches a general-purpose AI or even a clear path to how it could be achieved. Another great threat to superintelligence is the halting problem. The halting problem is concerned with whether any program will continue to run or finish running. This problem is proved by Turing to be impossible to solve for all cases, which means that a strongly self-modifying AI that is able to modify its own source is most likely to create a bug. The bug will result in an inevitable crash that requires human intervention to be solved (Suki, 2015). This indicates that all AI driven machines are potentially self-destructive, which is reassuring thought in relation to superintelligence.

In the end, whether we have three degrees in robotics, technology, or any other related field or are ‘just’ interested like myself, we can all only speculate about the future. Predicting the future related to AI is perhaps even more difficult than in other fields, because it is still in its infancy, yet related developments and advancements are way faster. I do understand that we should be prepared and anticipate for all possible scenarios, but fear causes dispersion, which inevitably leads to conflict, and don’t we already have enough of that?

References:
Cellan-Jones, R. (2014). Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind. Technology Correspondent. [Accessed at 03-10-2016]. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540
Del Prado, G.M., (2015). 18 intelligence researchers reveal the profound changes coming to our lives. Techinsider. [Accessed at 02-10-2016]. Available from: http://www.techinsider.io/researchers-predictions-future-artificial-intelligence-2015-10/
Ford, P. (2015). Our fear of Artificial Intelligence. MIT Technology Review. [Accessed at 03-10-2016]. Available from: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/534871/our-fear-of-artificial-intelligence/
Suki, I. (2015). Arguments against the threat of artificial superintelligence. Essay. [Accessed at 02-10-2016]. Available from: https://www.isaacsukin.com/news/2015/04/arguments-against-threat-artificial-superintelligence

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Alright, the title may be a bit misleading and perhaps sounds too ‘romantic’. To be honest, it was created to draw your attention. So it that sense, it was highly effective. But funny enough, as technology changes the landscape of the way information is distributed, so do MOOCs question the need to be psychically present during lectures. In fact, with MOOCs, students have no direct need to be at or around any university for the rest of their lives. And yes, in theory that means that you can study from your bed. Or every other bed around the world. All-day. Everyday. Not too bad right?

MOOCs, an abbreviation of Massive Open Online Courses, offer web-driven, mostly free, platform alternatives to traditional universities. Aimed at unlimited participation and open access, they are increasing in diversified supply and popularity (Allen & Seaman, 2013). To scatter some facts and figures: more than 35 million people have enrolled in MOOCs in the last four years, and 2015 enrollments doubled from 2014. There are currently 4200 different online courses, a number that is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years (Bates, 2013).

The growth of MOOCs is not only technological driven, mostly because of increased bandwidth speed globally; it is also thanks to a wide variety of advantages they offer compared to traditional universities. First of all, they are available to everyone, everywhere around the globe. Their reach is literarily skyrocketing, which is great news for people whose main constraint to studying is distance. MOOCs also provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional ways of studying, both for the student as for the concerned university, since fixed costs are relatively low and, like with most other information goods, cost of distribution is close to none (Laseter, 2012). Lastly, in line with the increase of personalizing almost every we want, do and obtain, having the ability to pick your own courses and create your own study could provide a ton of opportunities.

Although this may sound promising and probably is, there are a couple of serious downsides to MOOCs that cannot be overseen. First of all, and a pretty obvious one, most MOOCs lack real social interaction, an aspect that is considered highly important in all forms of education. A few companies do offer virtual alternatives to dwindle this problem, but talking to a 3D avatar of your teammate does not fully seal the deal, right? Moreover, offering courses for free drastically downgrades the level of student engagement. Student retention is high with only 2-10% of the students initially enrolled for the course actually earned the certificate for it. Lastly, current universities have built up centuries of recognition and reputation. This process takes time for a reason. MOOCs clearly have a large, perhaps not feasible, gap to close regarding this (Arbaugh, 2005).

In my opinion, MOOCs definitely provide numerous possibilities to alter the educational environment. And yes, I do think that universities operate (too) traditionally and, unquestionably, need to respond to changing times and technological advances. However, social interaction and teaching presence are incredibly important. MOOCs should therefore be approached as compliment, certainly not as substitute. Sorry, but it is time to get out of bed now.

I’m curious what you think of the growth of MOOCs in our educational system. Feel free to leave a comment!

References
Allen, I. E., & Seaman, J. (2013). Changing Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States. Sloan Consortium. PO Box 1238, Newburyport, MA 01950.
Bates, T. (2014). The strengths and weaknesses of MOOCs: Part I. www.tonybates.ca
Laseter, T. (2012). GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE-The University’s Dilemma-In the face of disruptive change, higher education needs a new, more innovative business model. Strategy and Business, (69), 24
Arbaugh, J. B. (2005). Is there an optimal design for on-line MBA courses?.Academy of Management Learning & Education, 4(2), 135-149.

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