The future of transportation is autonomous. Do not doubt it, do not deny it, expect it.

26

September

2021

No ratings yet.

The WHO (2021) estimates that every year, 1.3 million people die as a result of road traffic crashes. This is equivalent to 7,5% of the Netherlands’ population. What is more important about these figures is that according to the U.S. Department of Transportation, 94% to 96% of the traffic crashes in the U.S. are related to human error and could be prevented. Additionally, when analyzing the same figures from an economic point of view, the WHO (2021), also states that traffic crashes cost most countries 3% of their gross domestic product. Then, isn’t it the best solution to replace the source of accidents, namely, human drivers?

Currently, several companies are developing the technology to create cars that can drive all by themselves in most weather conditions, which is known as Level 4 Autonomy (with level 5 being the most autonomous, under all conditions). A company called Waymo is already well advanced in the development of self-driving taxis, already operating in Phoenix and San Francisco. Each car uses different tools to detect every moving and stationary object around it (such as LiDAR, 29 visual cameras, Radar, Inertial Measurement Unit, and other supplemental sensors), and by mapping their trajectories, they run several future scenarios to predict the most likely movement for each object. Then, it acts accordingly to the most likely trajectory to be followed by them. A representation of how the car identifies objects can be seen below:

Source: Waymo.

In 2019, Waymo released a study indicating all the accidents their cars were involved in during the 9.8 million kilometres travelled by then. There was a total of 18 accidents, of which none led to serious injuries. But the most interesting part is the common factor in the reason behind every accident: humans breaking traffic laws. Furthermore, 3 of the 18 incidents were related to pedestrians and in all three of them, the Waymo vehicle was stationary and pedestrians ran into the vehicle.

Using the information gathered so far until 2021 (many more kilometres have been travelled than the 9.8 million of 2019), the company is generating several virtual scenarios that allow feeding the software with an additional 24 billion miles of travel’s worth of information. Using Machine Learning, the software that controls vehicles is becoming more and more intelligent and will eventually be able to reduce even more the number of accidents. This process could be greatly accelerated if the cars were used in every city of every country.

There are many reasons for the future of transportations to be autonomous that we must sit for a moment and think of some implications: Deaths related to traffic could be severely decreased and countries would not need to spend so much money trying to prevent or mitigate the results. Disabled people could move without problems. Cars that are having a wasted value parked 95% of the time could be replaced by autonomous taxis. We could turn parking lots into green areas. Cars will eventually be able to communicate with each other, importantly decreasing traffic jams, and many more.

This technology will change the way we understand transportation in the medium term and will contribute to a better world.

If you want to learn more about this topic, I recommend the following video:

References:

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries#:~:text=Approximately%201.3%20million%20people%20die,result%20of%20road%20traffic%20crashes.&text=Road%20traffic%20crashes%20cost%20most,of%20their%20gross%20domestic%20product.

https://waymo.com/

https://www.veritasium.com/videos/2021/7/23/why-you-should-want-driverless-cars-on-roads-now

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812456

Please rate this

What´s up automotive industry?

10

September

2019

5/5 (3) The automotive industry is currently in a vast turmoil, thus nobody is able to predict the future as well as to forecast which technologies will have the biggest impact on the automotive industry. Nevertheless, it’s inevitable that a technological wave is disrupting the industry and car companies are forced to react (Blackman, 2019). Besides providing a brief glance on the most impactful changes in the automotive industry, I would like foster a vital discussion, asking for your opinion on the most important technologies and the future of the automotive industry.

First, passing by the technology of electrified cars is impossible when analyzing the current automotive industry. It is more than just it`s propulsion technology but rather a step towards cleaner roadways and carbon reduced emissions. Therefore, it comes by no surprise that sales of electric cars are peaking at around 5.1 million cars in 2018 (IEA, 2019) , while being at around 200 000 in 2013 (Kane, 2016). Moreover the rise of importance is underlined by the fact that electric vehicles will amount up to 35% of all global new car sales by 2040 (Bannon, 2016). Secondly, the invention of vehicles that are not in need of any human intervention is called autonomous driving. To my mind the impact for the future of the automotive industry are tremendous as the list of advantages are endless. For example, traffic death could be reduced by around 90% or 60% less carbon emissions due to reasons as decreased traffic congestions and increased efficiency of fuel use (Goldin, 2019). Last but not least, the interconnectivity between cars and/ or with traffic infrastructure could create increased revenues, reduced costs, boosted safety and create value opportunities of around 750$ billion until the year 2030 (Bertoncello, Husain and Möller, 2018). Furthermore, advantages are seen in time-saving and increased productivity as accident alerts, traffic conditions and live route optimisation including shorter routes are available (Fernandez, n.d.). Additionally, interconnected cars increase the safety standard as they are able to communicate with road infrastructure or other cars. Therefore, there are forecasts which predict that there will be 380 million connected cars by 2021 and a new ecosystem in the automotive industry. Wait … a new ecosystem?

Of course, electrification, autonomous driving and interconnectivity are shaping the car industry as just a few technologies ever did before. But are those the most impactful changes to the automotive industry? To my mind those technologies are “only” the enhancers for something that is bigger than those technologies – a new ecosystem in the automotive industry which is boosted by interconnection, automation, electrification and smart algorithms. It´s not about selling cars anymore, but rather about cooperating with new partners in order to deliver the best, most convenient and sustainable mobility service for a new generation of high demanding customers. What are your thoughts – are those really the most important technologies at the moment? And are the technologies just the enhancers for the new ecosystem or is the new ecosystem just an overrated buzzword?

References:

Bannon, E. (2016). E-vehicles to be 35% of sales by 2040 thanks to falling battery prices | Transport & Environment. [online] Transportenvironment.org. Available at: https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/e-vehicles-be-35-sales-2040-thanks-falling-battery-prices [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Bertoncello, M., Husain, A. and Möller, T. (2018). Setting the framework for car connectivity and user experience. [online] McKinsey & Company. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/setting-the-framework-for-car-connectivity-and-user-experience [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Fernandez, T. (n.d.). 6 Key Benefits of Adopting Connected Car Technology | Autotrip. [online] Autotrip. Available at: https://autotrip.com/connected-car-technology-benefits/ [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Goldin, P. (2018). 10 Advantages of Autonomous Vehicles | ITSdigest. [online] Itsdigest.com. Available at: https://www.itsdigest.com/10-advantages-autonomous-vehicles [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

IEA (2019). Global EV Outlook 2019. [online] Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/reports/globalevoutlook2019/ [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Kane, M. (2019). Plug-In Electric Car Sales Visualized From 2011 to 2015. [online] InsideEVs. Available at: https://insideevs.com/news/329358/plug-in-electric-car-sales-visualized-from-2011-to-2015/ [Accessed 10 Sep. 2019].

Please rate this

Is Tesla finally getting serious competition?

24

October

2016

5/5 (2) For years we are talking about the ‘real’ breakthrough of electric vehicles. However, the large and established car manufacturers are far behind Tesla Motors since the introduction of their Model S in 2009 and Tesla has new, even better models that are on their way.
The Paris Motor Show, that took place from the 1st till the 16th of October this year, showed us that a transition in the automotive industry is happening and competition for Tesla is getting bigger and more serious with every new model being introduced to the market.

Paris Motor Show has finished, and most of the new vehicles and concepts introduced by the biggest automotive players were hybrid or full electric. Volkswagen, Opel and Mercedes showed they are seriously working towards manufacturing electric cars that can drive >300km with a full charge, which now is only possible with a Tesla Model S.

Volkswagen was recently involved in the large emission scandal that shocked the world. Now, it’s time to clean up their act. ‘Our future is electric’ says Herbert Dies, the CEO of Volkswagen Passenger Cars. Volkswagen introduced the Volkswagen I.D., a concept car that is in the same class as the popular Volkswagen Golf. The I.D. has a range of 400 to 600 kilometers dependent on what battery the buyer chooses, but the launch date is set to 2020.

Mercedes showcased the Mercedes Generation EQ, a concept car that will not be produced, but it does show that Mercedes is capable of manufacturing batteries that can make cars drive a range of 500 kilometers.

Unlike Volkswagen and Mercedes, Opel did not showcase a concept car. Opel showcased the Ampera-e, a European version of the Chevrolet Bolt. With a range of 500 kilometers on a single charge, the Ampera-e is one of the best electric vehicles yet to date. Also, the Ampera-e makes use of regenerative technology that Tesla cars also use. This is a technology that makes it possible to regenerate energy while running.

Looking at the cars and concepts presented at the Paris Motor show, we can conclude that big automotive players are serious about electric vehicles and that electric vehicles are the future. Tesla did not have serious competition until now but it seems like the time has come to face serious competition. We will have to wait to see how big automotive players will attack the well-established position of Tesla in the electric vehicle industry.

 

Please rate this

On the Impact of Autonomous Cars

3

October

2016

Introduction

Autonomous cars are vehicles that are able to fulfill the main transporting capabilities of traditional cars without direct human control [1]. They are also known as driverless, self-driving, or robotic cars. Scientists and engineers have been developing this technology since the 1960s, and some sources even report that the development started as early as the 1920s [2]. In 2010, Google tested this new kind of vehicle on Californian roads with its “Google car” [3]. In 2012, a dozen of Google’s self-driving cars drove 300,000 miles under computer control without a single accident [4]. Since 2014, self-driving cars have been commercially available [5]. Other, more traditional carmakers are expecting their first autonomous cars to be available around 2020 [6–11]. Note that semi-autonomous cars are already available from these carmakers [12]. For example, these cars are equipped with basic forward-collision warning systems or automatic braking features. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has seen a 7 percent and a 14 percent reduction in crashes for these systems respectively [13]. Besides being used in cars, the autonomous technology can also be found in other ground vehicles, such as subway systems [14], tractors [15], and space vehicles [16]. Studies show that at least 90% of all car crashes are due to human factors [17]. The introduction of the autonomous car could therefore have a tremendous impact as they do not rely on direct human control.

Future Implications

When the autonomous car is introduced, many aspects of current society are prone to change. Ethically, benefits lie in everyone being allowed to use this mode of transport, meaning it would not matter if the occupants were under age, over age, unlicensed, blind, distracted, intoxicated, or otherwise impaired. Furthermore, the infrastructure will change gradually: the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) envisions an absence of traffic signs and lights since autonomous cars would not need them [18]. Dr. Alberto Broggi, IEEE senior member and professor of computer engineering at the University of Parma, successfully piloted a self-driving car on a 13,000-kilometer road trip from Parma to Shanghai [19]. He points out that robotic cars will require less infrastructure, not more, stating “The cars that we tested on the route from Parma to Shanghai had no maps, and had sensing primarily based on cameras. In both cases, the cars have no help from the infrastructure”. IEEE also believes that autonomous cars could eliminate the need for driver’s licenses [18]. At some point, it is probable that conventional vehicles with human drivers will be limited and then excluded [20]. In addition, the idea about car ownership could change. Knowing that cars sit unused about 95% of the time, there could be a lot of improvement in how we would allocate resources [21]. For example, the car can become a service rather than a possession [22]. It can then be summoned by smartphone, making owning a car obsolete.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley found that the use of autonomous cars would contribute to $1.3 trillion in annual savings in the U.S. alone [23]. Worldwide, savings are estimated to be $5.6 trillion due to less fuel consumption, less congestion costs, less accidents, and a productivity gain attributed to saved time [24]. On the other hand, McKinsey & Company stated that the introduction of autonomous or near-autonomous cars has a potential economic impact of $200 billion to $1.9 trillion per year in 2025 [25]. To put this in perspective, the lowest estimate is still more than the total government expenditure of the Netherlands [26]. Furthermore, commuters would gain an average of 50 minutes of free time a day, and 90% of all accidents would be prevented. Consequently, McKinsey & Company found that we would save 30,000–150,000 lives per year from potentially fatal traffic accidents. That is equal to over 187 times the population of Vatican City every year [27]. Besides saving lives directly, 300 million tons of CO2 emissions will be saved, which is equal to half of the current commercial aviation emissions [28].

According to Deloitte the improvement of technology is accelerating exponentially [29]. For humans this kind of growth is counterintuitive, and thus difficult to comprehend [30]. According to Ray Kurzweil, the 100 years of the 21st century we experience will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate, which is a thousand times greater than the 20th century [31]. Technological unemployment (unemployment primarily caused by technological change) might become reality. With the introduction of the driverless car, taxi drivers might be the first ones to lose their jobs in favor of this technology. “[They] might very well be the equivalent of nineteenth-century horse-and-cart men, blacksmiths and all the other related trades that were swept aside as the automobile conquered the world” [32]. McKinsey noted that the two largest industries hurt by the introduction would be car insurers and car repair shops. However, Jay L. Zagorsky, a research scientist at The Ohio State University, states that McKinsey missed the tremendous impact on police forces around the world [33]. As more than half of all contacts with the police are traffic-related, and most of these issues will become nonexistent, the number of law enforcement personnel can be cut in half without reducing public safety, says Zagorsky. Nonetheless, more than half of preeminent experts do not believe that technology will displace more jobs than it creates in 2025 [34]. This would mean that technological unemployment would not take place until at least 2025. Conversely, MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee do think that less jobs will become available and unemployment rates will grow [35]. This is not necessarily a bad thing: people used to work less hours per year before the industrialization [36]. In ancient Greece they even tried to not work at all, spending most of their time drinking [37]. If technological unemployment does become reality, a solution is evident. By guaranteeing a basic income, paid with money that has been saved with the introduction of the autonomous car, the unemployed can continue to have an acceptable standard of living. One could even argue that governments should subsidize the technology as it will earn the government more money than it would cost to facilitate this [38].

Conclusion

In conclusion, the extent of the socioeconomic impact of the introduction of autonomous cars may be the greatest mankind has ever seen: (1) there will be a reduced amount of accidents and deaths; (2) money, time, and fuel will be saved; (3) there will be less traffic, less traffic signs and lights, and possibly less roads; and (4) the idea about car ownership will change, possibly converting from ownership to a service [39]. The amount of lives saved each year is already a reason enough to accept the advent of the autonomous car. Moreover, the amount of money saved can be used to raise allowances for people that may lose their job in favor of this technology. Since the introduction of the autonomous car thus has many benefits, it should be introduced as soon as possible.

References

  1. wiseGEEK. (2015). What Is a Driverless Car?. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-a-driverless-car.htm
  2. News.google.com (1926). The Milwaukee Sentinel. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=unBQAAAAIBAJ&sjid=QQ8EAAAAIBAJ&pg=7304,3766749&hl=en
  3. Markoff, J. (2010). Google Cars Drive Themselves, in Traffic. Nytimes.com. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/science/10google.html
  4. Lardinois, F. (2012). Google’s Self-Driving Cars Complete 300K Miles Without Accident, Deemed Ready For Commuting. TechCrunch. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/07/google-cars-300000-miles-without-accident/
  5. Maisto, M. (2014). Induct Now Selling Navia, First Self-Driving Commercial Vehicle. Eweek.com. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.eweek.com/innovation/induct-now-selling-navia-first-self-driving-commercial-vehicle.html
  6. Fowler, S. (2015). Renault and Nissan confirm autonomous cars by 2020. Auto Express. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/renault/90707/renault-and-nissan-confirm-autonomous-cars-by-2020
  7. Preisinger, I. (2013). Daimler aims to launch self-driving car by 2020. Reuters. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/08/us-autoshow-frankfurt-daimler-selfdrive-idUSBRE98709A20130908
  8. Elmer, S. (2013). BMW Targets 2020 for Self-Driving Cars » AutoGuide.com News. AutoGuide.com News. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2013/02/bmw-targets-2020-for-self-driving-cars.html
  9. Johnson, D. (2013). Audi predicts self-driving cars by 2020. Leftlanenews.com. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.leftlanenews.com/audi-predicts-self-driving-cars-by-2020.html
  10. Cheng, R. (2014). General Motors President sees self-driving cars by 2020 – CNET. CNET. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.cnet.com/news/general-motors-president-sees-self-driving-cars-by-2020/
  11. Mack, E. (2014). Elon Musk: Don’t fall asleep at the wheel for another 5 years – CNET. CNET. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-sees-autonomous-cars-ready-sooner-than-previously-thought/
  12. Kessler, A., & Vlasic, B. (2015). Semiautonomous Driving Arrives, Feature by Feature. Nytimes.com. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/03/automobiles/semiautonomous-driving-arrives-feature-by-feature.html
  13. The Road to Self-Driving Cars – Today’s crash-avoidance systems are the mile markers to tomorrow’s autonomous vehicles, in Consumer Reports. 2014.
  14. Siemens. (2008). Driverless Subways. Siemens.com. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/publikationen/publications_pof/pof_spring_2008/tailored_solutions/fahrerlose_ubahn.htm
  15. Kopytoff, V. (2014). Driverless tractors on the farm. Fortune. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://fortune.com/2014/12/29/driverless-tractors-on-the-farm/
  16. Webster, G. (2013). NASA’S Mars Curiosity Debuts Autonomous Navigation. Jpl.nasa.gov. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-259
  17. Smith, B.W. (2013). Human error as a cause of vehicle crashes. Cyberlaw.stanford.edu. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/human-error-cause-vehicle-crashes
  18. Newcomb, D. You won’t need a driver’s license by 2040. 2012 18 September 2012 [cited 2015 11 May]; Available from: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/18/tech/innovation/ieee-2040-cars/index.html.
  19. Drielsma, M., From Europe to China: Intelligent driverless vehicle reaches end goal in Shanghai after 13 000 km. 2010.
  20. Martin, R. (2013). How Self-Driving Cars Will Change The World. Forbes. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/pikeresearch/2013/11/13/how-self-driving-cars-will-change-the-world/
  21. Davies, A. (2015). Self-Driving Cars Will Make Us Want Fewer Cars. WIRED. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.wired.com/2015/03/the-economic-impact-of-autonomous-vehicles/
  22. Baydere, B.A., et al. Car-Sharing Service Using Autonomous Automobiles. 2014.
  23. Morganstanley.com. (2015). Autonomous Cars: The Future Is Now. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.morganstanley.com/articles/autonomous-cars-the-future-is-now/
  24. Zhang, B. (2014). [INFOGRAPHIC] Autonomous Cars Could Save The US $1.3 Trillion Dollars A Year. Business Insider. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-autonomous-cars-trillion-dollars-2014-9
  25. Manyika, J.C., Michael; Bughin, Jacques; Dobbs, Richard; Bisson, Peter; Marrs, Alex, Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy. 2013, McKinsey & Company. p. 78-83.
  26. Government.nl. (2015). Expenditure in 2014. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.government.nl/issues/budget/revenue-and-expenditure-in-2014/expenditure-in-2014
  27. Uffici di Presidenza S.C.V. (2015). Population. Vaticanstate.va. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.vaticanstate.va/content/vaticanstate/en/stato-e-governo/note-generali/popolazione.html
  28. Ecometrica, Introduction of aviation into the European Union emissions trading scheme. 2009. p. 5.
  29. Hagel, J., et al., From exponential technologies to exponential innovation. Deloitte Center for the Edge, San Jose, California. http://www2. deloitte. com/content/dam/Deloitte/es/Documents/sector-publico/Deloitte_ES_Sector-Publico_From-exponentialtechnologies-to-exponential-innovation.pdf, 2013.
  30. Big Think Editors. (2011). Big Idea: Technology Grows Exponentially. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://bigthink.com/think-tank/big-idea-technology-grows-exponentially
  31. Kurzweil, R., & Meyer, C. (2003). Understanding the Accelerating Rate of Change. Kurzweilai.net. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.kurzweilai.net/understanding-the-accelerating-rate-of-change
  32. Lewis, N. (2015). The driverless car and the fall of man. Spiked-online.com. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the-driverless-car-and-the-fall-of-man/16887
  33. Zagorsky, J.L. (2015). Cops may feel biggest impact from driverless car revolution. The Conversation. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://theconversation.com/cops-may-feel-biggest-impact-from-driverless-car-revolution-38767
  34. Smith, A., & Anderson, J. (2014). AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs. Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/
  35. Brynjolfsson, E. and A. McAfee, Race against the machine: How the digital revolution is accelerating innovation, driving productivity, and irreversibly transforming employment and the economy. 2012: Brynjolfsson and McAfee.
  36. Schor, J. Preindustrial workers worked fewer hours than today’s. Groups.csail.mit.edu. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/users/rauch/worktime/hours_workweek.html
  37. Wittermans, S. (2014). Werken is voor de dommen. Eoswetenschap.eu. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://eoswetenschap.eu/artikel/werken-voor-de-dommen
  38. Rand.org. (2015). The Dream Drive. Retrieved 14 September 2016, from http://www.rand.org/blog/rand-review/2015/01/the-dream-drive.html
  39. Diamandis, P. (2014). Self-driving Cars are Coming. Forbes. Retrieved 15 September 2016, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdiamandis/2014/10/13/self-driving-cars-are-coming/