From pandemic to chip shortage – will the automotive industry recover?

9

October

2021

5/5 (2)

Hopes of recovering lost sales and growth opportunities after the pandemic have not been so optimistic for the automotive industry. Among the many devastating effects of the pandemic, the semiconductor chip shortage is one which has affected a wide range of industries significantly. This shortage was a combination of a lack of demand and production during 2020, and a resulting bottleneck in the chip manufacturing process. This post will zoom into the effects of the shortage on the automotive industry, which has been suffering profoundly.

Semiconductor chip manufacturing

Semiconductor chips are made of silicon and are used to power electric devices. They are virtually everywhere, and in most electric devices you use. The production of semiconductor chips and building the fabs for producing them is extremely expensive and time consuming. Suppliers of chips need to earn a minimum of $3 billion in profits for each fab to be able to generate money, and this has been difficult following the pandemic and its economic consequences. With regards to time constraints, chip manufacturing takes over 3 months. As such, combining the complexity, time, and financial costs of producing semiconductor chips, the shortage has been extremely difficult to face and will take years to overcome.

Chip shortage in the automotive industry

In terms of the automotive industry, semiconductor chips are essential components in the car manufacturing process. These are vital for car features like emergency braking systems.

The chip shortage’s expected costs in 2021 for the automotive industry are $210 billion because of slowed production, much longer lead times and the postponement of new product launches (the forecasted effects of the shortage in 2021 as a whole almost doubled from May to today according to CNBC). These devastating effects are only expected to subside by 2023, when there is expected to be an overcapacity of semiconductor chips.

How has this affected demand and supply?

On the demand side, customers are more willing to wait until the shortage subsides to purchase vehicles. Further, they are more likely to switch between car manufacturers depending on who can satisfy their demand first. This has strongly influenced the role brand loyalty plays in the automotive industry and has also led to individuals moving towards the used car market. Following the pandemic, demand has also risen naturally, and this has been met with reduced supply in the automotive industry.

On the supply side, car manufacturers are starting to look at leaner and more efficient production processes. Make-to-order models are becoming more popular as car manufacturers navigate the chip shortage. This could be an interesting development for the future of car manufacturing post-shortage. Further, car prices are seeing an increase.

The shortage of semiconductor chips has highlighted how the pandemic has influenced the economy in profound ways. Further, it indicates the vulnerable balance between supply and demand forces and it will be interesting to see how and if car manufacturers will overcome the effects of the shortage and make it to 2023.   

References:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/23/chip-shhttps://open.spotify.com/track/1jy7SkRcmBCTcv4ZMtwz29ortage-expected-to-cost-auto-industry-210-billion-in-2021.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/23/chip-shortage-expected-to-cost-auto-industry-210-billion-in-2021.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-chip-production-why-hard-to-make-semiconductors/

https://driving.ca/auto-news/industry/report-half-of-new-car-buyers-planning-to-wait-out-semiconductor-chip-shortage

https://eu.freep.com/story/money/cars/2021/06/15/car-chip-shortage-2021/7688773002/

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Extending the Concept of Versioning in the Video Games Industry

7

October

2018

How versioning has impacted the gaming industry and how companies use it to capture value long after a game is released.

5/5 (2)

Building on Tom’s article which can be read in this blog (https://digitalstrategy.rsm.nl//2018/09/21/versioning-and-the-gambling-debate-in-the-video-game-industry/), the video games industry is perhaps one of the best examples in order to understand the dynamics of versioning and to grasp its various benefits. In this sector, versioning can be accomplished with little effort and in varied ways, normally with different strategic purposes and allowing companies to derive various benefits.

The first and most evident way is perhaps, multiplatform releases. In order to cater to a wider audience, publishers release their games in multiple platforms (generally, Xbox One, PS4 and PC), mostly with minimal observable differences between them. Adding to these already three different versions, publishers also usually launch pre-order bonuses and different versions for each platform. Taking the FIFA 19 game example, at launch you could choose from three versions for each platform: Standard Version containing the full-game (€69.99), Champions Edition containing the full-game, 3-day early access to the game and FIFA Ultimate Team (FUT) boosts (€89.99) and finally, an Ultimate Edition with all of the above benefits plus additional FUT boosts for €99.99. This said, upon release only, FIFA 19 had already launched in nine different versions.

Other times, versioning can be integrated into the game’s business model from day one and be the source of revenue, as it happens with the freemium model, similarly to Spotify’s business model, which distinguishes between a free and a premium version. However, long after release, companies are still able to capture value from versioning, being able to do it mainly through three different ways: complete editions/game of the year editions, remakes and remasters.

A videogame’s lifecycle has widely changed during the last generations of consoles and before, as games would become outdated and their player-base would decrease, months or a couple of years after release, the games could be found heavily discounted on stores. This has changed, however, with the introduction of Digital Local Content (DLC) which adds additional content to the original game under the form of features, items, quests or modes attracting players back into the game. After releasing these packs of contents, companies are now able to bundle them together with the initial release under a name similar to “Complete Edition”, bumping the price of a one- or two-year-old game back to the full-price of 69.99€ at a low marginal cost.  A good example of this is Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed 2, which has been bundled with DLC and re-bundled with other games not in one, not in two, but approximately in fourteen different versions.

Versioning can also come from the remastering of a game, which consists in relaunching the existing game while making some small tweaks (e.g. increase resolution from 720p to 1080p or from 30 frames-per-second to 60) or introducing new features in order to take advantage of the capabilities of a new platform. This versioning strategy presents several advantages to developers and publishers. Firstly, the costs of remastering a game are significantly lower than developing one from scratch and its production process can usually be outsourced. Secondly, it allows companies to promote their intellectual properties (IP) to audiences that were not able to purchase their IPs before as they, for example, did not have the console for which it was initially launched. Thirdly, these remakes are commonly launched right before a new game of the series is released, proving as an effective way to promote it. Finally, when new hardware is launched, remasters allow developers to experiment and learn from it, representing a much less risky approach then releasing a brand-new big budget title.

Companies can also remake their games, which is not to be confused with remastering since remaking (as the name implies) consists in remaking a game almost from the ground up rather than simply tweaking it. This usually happens if the game becomes too outdated, making it very difficult for developers to update existing assets and to use an obsolete game engine, making it more efficient to just remake it all together. This strategy has the added advantage of appealing to the already existing core fanbase, leveraging the “nostalgia economy”.

This said, ways of versioning in the video game industry are wide and diverse, and should be integrated into a company’s strategy accordingly as a way to capture value during or long after a product is released. What do you think? In what other ways can developers and publishers capture value through versioning? Do you have a better example of an industry where versioning is an expanding reality? Let us know in the comments!

 

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Apparel Industry: A Candidate for Digital Disruption in the Foreseeable Future?

14

September

2018

The Apparel Industry as a candidate for digital disruption.

5/5 (7) In the 2000’s, e-commerce and e-books would completely shift the paradigm in the books industry. Although it took some time to gain traction and several technological iterations were needed, the almost unlimited inventory of books offered by stores like Amazon and its low prices, allied with the convenience of home delivery and free shipping were able to shift consumer patterns and boost this type of media consumption. In short, in over 15 years, digitalization in the sector transformed the competitive landscape. In 2017 and in the U.S. alone, e-books accounted for 55% of all online book purchases in volume, of which 83.3% can be attributed to Amazon(1), and when printed book purchases (39%) are concerned, Amazon accounted for 45.5% of them(2).

Big strives for this technological up rise partly came from the costly inventory which had to be vast and consistent across brick-and-mortar stores, higher prices, low searchability and portability of books, between many other inefficiencies/factors which are inherent to a physical business model of such nature. This got me thinking of other industries that may be in a similar position and, in my view, the apparel industry presents itself as a strong candidate to follow suit in the foreseeable future.

What technologies may disrupt the Apparel industry?

Buying apparel either online or in physical stores is a chore for some. In the first case, the inherent inefficiency of the channel comes from the uncertainty of the purchase, either from the inconsistent model sizes across brands and regions or from image manipulation that may occur in webstores to make their products more appealing. In a few years, however, it may be possible to bridge the online with the traditional experience and see and try the items you desire while having the store service you may need, all from the comfort of your home using Virtual Reality(3).

In the case of physical stores, some people simply do not appreciate the stress-inducing experience of going to commercial centres to buy a product they desire or simply cannot afford to spend time on such tasks. With the continuous cost reduction and technology improvement of 3D printers, the online purchasing experience may only consist in downloading the “blueprints” of your new product and watch it as it is manufactured in front of your own eyes and is ready to be worn in a couple of hours(4).

Both these technologies have the potential to massively reduce costs. No longer will companies need to set up massive production lines to deliver the goods or to develop a complex network of product distribution. Additionally, at some point, to provide service and assistance, physical stores may stop being the first-choice for many with the use of VR, allowing companies to reduce their investment in physical retail. This way, companies could redirect their investment to design departments to both differentiate themselves as well as to increase their product offering, now that the production capacity constraint would be surpassed.

However, digitalization in apparel can also follow a different route and result from the emergence of IoT. The continued push for wearable tech will allow companies to create ecosystems of products that can act as “life companions”, continuously gathering data from the user, from biometric data, to providing nutritional and physiological recommendations, physical monitoring, and many other features, changing the fundamental nature of clothing, its lifecycle and its switching costs. In short, it has the potential to revolutionize not only clothing but medicine as well.

Despite the promise of these technologies, they may be a long way from becoming a reality in our daily lives. They still have a relatively high cost to appeal to the mainstream audience and some still need some iterative improvements, as 3D Printing, for example, that cannot replicate the current quality of clothing materials and techniques. However, this has not stopped brands such as Nike (also Adidas and Reebok) from experimenting and producing whole lines of sneakers with 3D printed components, like the Nike Flyprint(5). Also, others like IoT and wearable tech still may have to face ethical and privacy barriers when it comes to the protection and use of the data collected.

What do you think? How do you think the industry will evolve? Let us know in the comments.

Sources:

(1) https://publishdrive.com/amazon-ebook-market-share/

(2) http://authorearnings.com/report/january-2018-report-us-online-book-sales-q2-q4-2017/

(3) https://www.forbes.com/sites/currentaccounts/2016/01/28/virtual-reality-coming-soon-to-a-clothing-store-near-you/

(4) https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/soon-you-may-be-able-3d-print-clothing-your-own-ncna848646

(5) https://news.nike.com/news/nike-flyprint-3d-printed-textile

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Smart containers: How do they lead to operational savings?

13

September

2016

No ratings yet. When in the 1950s, Malcom McLean revolutionized international trade by introducing the intermodal container, most likely no one envisioned the invention becoming “smart” in the future. Once the pioneering  method of transporting goods was commercialized, new versions of the container began to appear. Soon enough the reefer, also known as a refrigerated container, was added to the intermodal container fleet.

Designed to provide a temperature controlled environment for the transport of perishable goods, reefers allow us to ship not only fruit and vegetables but also pharmaceuticals, wine or frozen meat. Try to imagine having 270,000 of such containers at your disposal and the need for thorough physical pre-trip inspections (PTI). As every reefer operates using its own integral refrigeration unit and, at times an additional diesel powered generator, this process can be quite a challenge.

Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipping company decided to tackle this problem using the data recording process. Remote Container Management (RCM), the system enabling this to happen, is rather simple but extremely effective. Through a modem, GPS, wireless SIM card and a satellite link, the company gives the concept of supply chain visibility a new meaning.

The mentioned components are able to collect data on reefer’s position, its atmospheric conditions and power status, while the satellite transmitter installed on the vessels receives them from the modem. Real-time information are further sent to the satellite, which delivers them back to RCM teams placed around the world.

The vast amount of data provided by the RCM, is used to analyze the running conditions of the reefer equipment. Through the continuous process of live monitoring, time and labour consuming PTIs have been reduced by 50%. The risk of not discovering reefer malfunctions in time is now negligible, meaning that the commodities will remain safe and sound. Through the value of information, Maersk Line is able to maintain their reputation as a top tier shipping company.

In fact, Maersk Line already focuses on a more innovative approach on their road to “operational and commercial excellence”. Their desire for the future is to connect individual sensors on ships to monitor the whole fleet’s operational performance, and ultimately integrate entire supply chains. With the current technology progress, I am certain this is possible within a decade. What is your opinion?

 

Krystian Palczewski 384439

Sources:

https://www.cma-cgm.com/products-services/reefer/containers-fleet

http://www.en.ipu.dk/Indhold/refrigeration-and-energy-technology/cases/2016-04_MaerskRaps.aspx

http://www.maersk.com/en/the-maersk-group/about-us/publications/group-annual-magazine/2015/smart-containers-listen-and-talk

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