Why did Bitcoin fail in El Salvador and what opportunity do “stablecoins” present?

14

September

2024

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I must say I have been a skeptic towards cryptocurrencies for a while and at times I would strongly advocate for why they make no sense. However, after hearing more about cryptocurrencies as a disruptive technology during our lectures I realised I should maybe give them a chance and try to understand cryptocurrencies further. When reading into them I took interest in the use of cryptocurrencies as macroeconomic instruments in some of the world’s developing regions.

El Salvador has definitely taken the spotlight amongst countries that have adopted cryptocurrencies, specifically bitcoin, on a national level. 

In 2001 the country went through a major economic restructuring with the US dollar replacing their Salvadoran Colon. This left many lower income households in confusion and then exactly 20 years later they are faced with a major change to their country’s monetary landscape (link). In June 2021 the country’s president passed the “bitcoin law”, making the digital currency Bitcoin a legal tender (link). Since then, it has been unclear to what extent this adoption has been a success, where many say it was a complete flop. 

Only a year after the passing of the Salvadoran Bitcoin Law, the majority of the population were fueled with doubt when posed with the idea of bitcoin (link). The digital wallet that was launched by the country – Chivo Wallet posed significant drawbacks to do with traceability and fraud. The Chivo Wallet is a custodial wallet which means that a third party has custody of private keys on behalf of the users (link). This meant that although transactions were verified through Chivo wallet, identities were not, which led to the risk of fraud and identity theft (link).

With the national authorities failing to mobilize the adoption of bitcoin, residents that had initially invested in Bitcoin in 2021 found themselves with bitcoin that had almost halved in value. This is since cryptocurrencies in its nature are highly volatile where its value is mostly derived from how people value it (link).

Since then many countries have hopped on a new boat of a more stable alternative called “stable coin” which is essentially a more stable cryptocurrency. To reduce the volatility that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin face, these stable cryptocurrencies are based on tokens that are flagged to the value of a fiat currency, assets or another cryptocurrency (link). Nigeria is a country that has also gone through the adoption of cryptocurrency and is now looking towards a rapid rise in stable coins. Given the reputation of Nigeria’s Naira, a USD backed stable coin assures users of price stability. It also allows users a higher ease of access to the USD. On a more macro level, when residents have access to a USD backed stable coin they are less likely to be exposed to inflation within the country (link).

With technologies under Web3 still being relatively contemporary, countries and individuals are still researching the implications of these digital technologies as financial and economic instruments. Going forward their success will largely depend on appropriate governance and public trust.

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Stablecoins Are Not So Stable – Crypto

3

October

2021

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The popularity of cryptocurrency has been increasing over the years. According to the global crypto adoption index, in 2021 there has been an adoption increase of 880%. Even institutional money and cash of huge firms have been added into the crypto market. Names like Blackrock, Tesla, PayPal, and Square are all examples of organizations that have adopted Bitcoin in some form. There are even rumors that Amazon will soon allow payments to be made with cryptocurrencies.

Although the increase of adoption has a positive effect on the future of cryptocurrencies, there is still one elephant in the room to be addressed that makes further adoption more difficult: the high volatility of cryptocurrencies. Perhaps today you could still use your bitcoin to buy a shirt, but the opposite could be true for tomorrow. To solve this problem, stablecoins like Tether and Binance Coin were introduced to the crypto scene by crypto organizations. The idea behind this special digital money is that it is pegged with fiat USD on 1:1 ratio, which means that one does not need to be worried about losing buying power in the short-term. Just like normal fiat money, the only way for stablecoins to lose buying power is by inflation. The question remains, however, how are these crypto organizations able to keep the stablecoins pegged on a 1:1 ratio with the USD?

In theory, stablecoin organizations are able to produce an infinite amount of stablecoins. But in order to be pegged with the USD on a 1:1 ratio, the same amount of USD must be owned by the stablecoin provider on their balance sheet. The problem is that many stablecoin organizations do not allow external auditing, which means that nobody knows if stablecoins are really backed by fiat money. Therefore, stablecoins could turn out to be a ponzi scheme. Another problem is the fact that stablecoins are rumored to be backed by bonds, some even of the almost bankrupt Evergrande, risking the intrinsic value of stablecoins. Although as of today both potential problems have not been proven yet to be real, it is clear that the use of stablecoins is still quite risky, making the coin potentially to be worth $0.

Interestingly, even with this risk in mind, there is still lots of demand for stablecoins. In fact, one could earn up to 8.25% interest if they store their stablecoins on crypto banks or crypto exchanges. Compare that with the interest rate of barely a percent by fiat banks, this seems like a great way for the normal people to earn interest on their savings. To good to be true? Maybe.

Interest rates for stablecoins on Blockfi.

The reason for the high interest rate of stablecoins is due to the high demand of borrowing stablecoins by investors to speculate on the crypto market. Given the high volatility of cryptocurrency, this makes it possible for borrowers to have a high return of investment, using a part of their proceeds to fund the high interest rate. This concept is not new: fiat banks are doing the exact same. The only difference is that fiat money stored in fiat banks are insured by the government. In other words, if the borrowers are not able to pay back their debt, the government could still save the fiat bank and its customers with funding. The unregulated crypto banks and exchanges, however, are not insured, making it very risky to lend out stablecoins. Earning interest on stablecoins is thus high-risk high reward. Not to mention what could happen to the value of your lend out stablecoins once it is clear that it is perhaps a ponzi scheme. It was not a surprise when some governments are planning to come with their own stablecoins. China has done it.

To conclude, current stablecoins are not that stable as they seem to be. Not for daily use, and not for storing in your savings account. However, it is still quite useful for high-risk high reward investing strategies. Are you into that? Let me know in the comment section below.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/21/evergrande-crisis-could-drag-down-tether-and-other-cryptocurrencies.html

https://cointelegraph.com/news/how-the-digital-yuan-stablecoin-impacts-crypto-in-china-experts-answer

https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2021/stablecoins-under-the-microscope-as-us-preps-digital-currency-framework/

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2021-global-crypto-adoption-index

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencewintermeyer/2021/08/12/institutional-money-is-pouring-into-the-crypto-market-and-its-only-going-to-grow/?sh=64bbb24d1459

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/amazon-is-hiring-a-digital-currency-and-blockchain-expert.html

https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-promises-an-audit-in-months-as-paxos-claims-usdt-is-not-a-real-stablecoin

https://ronaldmulder.medium.com/why-stablecoins-make-no-sense-999490b08910

https://blockfi.com/rates/

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