Is the once vibrant and booming mobile market decreasing? After offering anything in between a mobile 3D camera and a removable battery or even the option to assemble all the parts yourself, is mobile setting as one of the major startup platforms?
To get a clear idea of what I mean I recommend reading this article on TechCrunch. To shortly summarise it, the author says that the only two serious players left in the mobile market today are Google and Apple. Essentially what he says is that mobile phones are on the verge of disappearing and that the next big thing will be much cooler.
In another article, Fred Wilson reports that mobile growth is indeed slowing down. According to the comScore US mobile app report confirms that as many apps as there are out there, people are actually using on average just 30 of them and all these are owned by a few big corporations. So the mobile market is not only maturing but also consolidating to be dominated by a few well-known companies.
So what’s going to follow?
Perhaps you have heard of this infamous statement that Marc Andreessen made a few years back that software is eating the world. What he meant back then was that software was disrupting industry after industry and that in the end this trend is going to help bring back the economy to its previous state (the article was written in 2011 right after the economic turmoil of 2008-2009).
Today – 5 years later, in a podcast I recently listened to of him and Ben Horowitz (the co-founders of A16Z) he is expanding his thesis. He is saying that software is actually programming the world. In essence, he believes that AI, machine learning, deep learning and quantum computing are going to be ruling the world of innovations in the following years and eventually become mainstream.
Indeed we are witnessing Google, Apple and Amazon are already trying to build an AI personal assistant with Google Assistant, Apple Siri and Alexa. In addition, I have already blogged about the rise of the chatbots and their application in marketing and customer communication. Finally, CrowdFlower is a machine learning based startup that helps data scientists to train their algorithms to learn.
And the examples don’t stop here! 29 machine learning companies have been acquired only this year and by the end of 2016, these type of deals will likely exceed the 37 that took place last year (informationweek.com).
What do you think? Do you think this is feasible or do you believe AI and machine learning are a bit far-fetched? Let me know in the comments! 🙂
Dear Stefani, thank you for your blog! While I doubt mobile is coming to an end, I do believe that the market is reaching its maturity and that it will be dominated by the few players you mentioned. For the moment, I think for the coming years, we will continue to use our mobile phones and the main applications (such as Whatsapp, snapchat, Instagram & Facebook).
I do agree with Marc Andreessen that software is taking over the world and will disrupt many industries – there are many innovations out there (such as self-driving cars, AI, drones) that will slowly but surely become more and more a part of our daily lives. One of my friends thinks that in about 10 years, there will only be self driving cars, as they are proven to be much safer. I think it will take a bit longer, as even though they are safer, people still like to be ‘in control’.
Thus, while I think AI and machine learning are not quite where they could be yet, I think they will develop and take over our lives sooner than we think!
Thanks Ananda! Yes, I agree that the concepts that I talked about are still very much in their infancy and it will definitely take longer until they are implemented. self-driving cars? that’s also an interesting one, but i think there’s a whole set of implications there – the main one being the trust that we put into technology. I believe people are not ready yet to completely trust self-driving cars
On self driving cars, this is basically a solved problem. Companies know how to do it and they are already better at it than humans. They have driven hundreds of miles without causing a single accident. The only thing that needs to be fixed before self-driving cars can hit the road, are rules en legislation. (Who’s liable when it does cause an accident).
I think the introduction of self-driving cars will be the end of Uber and other companies. They’re pushing forward into developing their own Driver AI but as they only have an app and no car and road information they’re too little and too late. An very interesting article on self driving cars is:
https://medium.com/startup-grind/uber-is-fucked-long-term-3ed36a901d08#.fpplvher0
It will change your view on Uber and the world we will be living in in 5-10Y.
I don’t think that this is the end of Uber. First of all, this is a disruptive technology and it will take a lot of time until people will get used to the idea that there is nobody behind the wheel. In all honesty, I would feel much more secure in an Uber right now rather than in a self-driven car. Where I can see that this concept is really useful is in campus areas or office areas where the traffic is low and the route is always the same but there is a long way to come to use this as a taxi.
Not sure what is meant by “only two serious players left in the mobile market today are Google and Apple”. Is it about the OS, so Android and iOS? If that is the case then then PC’s and laptops should’ve been dead long time ago since the same thing applies for them with mostly Windows and MAC OS dominating the market.
Hi there! What the author of this article means and partly I agree is that the technological innovation and change is most likely going to come from either Google or Apple. The rest of the players in the mobile market will certainly not disappear but do not have the same potential as these two giants. What do you think?
He there! Thanks for your comment! I looked over the article you recommended! Truly interesting indeed! According to you how long before self=driving cars become mainstream and everyone starts using them?
Hello Stefani and thanks for this article.
Let me first say that I actually find your article very lively and pleasant to read ! In particular, I like the use of a plethora of examples and also the many links you post. Also, your writing style is very engaging and captivating of the reader’s attention.
Concerning the content of the article, as far as I can understand, we both share the belief that AI, Machine Learning and Intelligent Machines with adaptive learning capabilities will indeed (and perhaps already do) dominate the world of technology and increasingly human life itself. I happen to view very positively the technological prospect of Intelligent Machines with the potential to adapt and self-educate themselves to interact better with their environment.
Additionally, I share your concern/points on the consolidation of the mobile apps/techs market into a market dominated by few, oligopolistic corporations. Unfortunately, despite the growth of the apps start ups market as a major target for new entrepreneurs to invest, still only few gigantic firms dominate the game and this, apart from the pricing concerns, creates to me serious concerns about the inbalance of power between the few, large internet firms and the average user. In particular, internet privacy is a major concern I have due to the almost uncontrollable nature of the few dominant players in the technology market.
Thanks a lot for your article and for the many links you post in it.
Kindly Yours,
Anargyros Berdekas
Hi Anargyros! Thanks for your comment! What I try to convey in my article (and hopefully I am succeeding) is that the mobile as a platform for innovation (new applications for instance) could very soon be replaced (or even already be replaced) by other tech trends such as AI. I am also very positive towards these change just like you and feel there’s enormous potential. Do you however think that these trends will again be dominated by a selected few corporations, or will it be to the startups to take them to full potential?